Should Grizzlies tank? Experts wary of draft depth
As the 2019 NBA draft class takes shape, a prevailing belief among experts is that this year’s draft is top-heavy and lacking in potential immediate-impact players outside of a select few.
It’s a reality the Grizzlies must consider during the season’s second half as the franchise tries to plan for the future without knowing what – if anything – it can expect from this year’s draft.
By contrast, it was clear by this time a year ago that the Grizzlies probably would have a top selection in what most regarded as a deep 2018 draft.
Even after dropping to No. 4 on lottery night, after finishing with the second-best odds to pick first overall, the Grizzlies wound up with 19-year-old phenom Jaren Jackson Jr., who is exceeding expectations at the season’s midway point.
This time around, the Grizzlies might
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LATE GAME: Get the latest news on Monday’s Memphis Grizzlies game against the Houston Rockets at commercialappeal.com not have a clear picture of their future until four months from Monday. That’s when the NBA draft lottery will decide the order of the 2019 draft – and possibly whether the Grizzlies have a selection at all.
If the Grizzlies end up with a topeight selection, they will keep it. If they end up with a pick outside the top eight, the pick will go to the Celtics to satisfy the requirements of a 2015 trade that sent Tayshaun Prince to Boston for Jeff Green.
Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace said recently that “we’ll be prepared for either eventuality.”
In one sense, the outcomes are clearcut: either the Grizzlies will have a top draft pick or they won’t.
But there is a chasm opening up within this year’s draft class that could make selecting at Nos. 6-8 in the first round an especially frustrating proposition for Memphis.
“You start to get very average quick in this draft, where you’re talking about interchangeability of functionally the same player with about six through 26,” Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders said.
Duke freshmen Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish are regarded as top-tier players capable of making an immediate impact.
Murray State guard Ja Morant rounds out the top four in Kyler’s mostrecent mock draft.
After that, the next tier of talent in this year’s draft class is filled with players who are dealing with injuries or inconsistent play that have clouded views of their potential.
“I think if you look at the guys I have projected in the top 10 or top 12, not all these guys are having great seasons,” said Jeremy Woo, an NBA writer for Sports Illustrated with a focus on the draft. “I think there’s a good bit of uncertainty now if you are picking in the lottery. A lot of things are going to come down to the rest of the season here, how guys work out and everything.”
Woo’s latest mock draft also features Williamson, Barrett, Morant and Reddish as his top four.
Kyler said last year’s draft featured a more enticing second-tier with players like Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr. and Collin Sexton going Nos. 6-8 in the first round.
“This year, I think you go from a real good top tier with maybe four guys, five guys on a top tier and then you jump to a third tier pretty quick,” Kyler said. “That’s my sense of how teams are seeing this.”
If the Grizzlies end up with a topeight selection this season, they will only delay their obligation to Boston until 2020, when the pick is top-six protected, or 2021, when it is unprotected.
That’s why many believe the franchise would prefer to convey the pick to Boston this year when the draft is not considered deep.
On the other hand, a frustrating December and first half of January have left some Grizzlies fans clamoring for the team to tank and rebuild as the franchise teeters on the brink of missing the playoffs in consecutive seasons.
But with Cleveland, Chicago, New York and Phoenix appearing well on their way to claiming the NBA’S worst four records, the Grizzlies might be better off attempting to stay competitive.
If the season had ended this weekend, the Grizzlies would have been slotted ninth in the draft lottery with a 4.5 percent chance of selecting first overall, a 20.2 percent chance of selecting somewhere in the top four, a 79.8 percent chance of conveying the pick to Boston and a 100 percent chance of avoiding the middle ground of selecting Nos. 5-8 that appears increasingly unappealing.
“Last year, even though they slipped out of the top three, they still came upon a really good player in Jaren,” Woo said. “That’s not going to happen every time.”
Reach Grizzlies beat writer David Cobb at david.cobb@commercial appeal.com.