How would Morant, Conley work out?
If the Grizzlies go with the obvious choice in next month’s NBA draft and use their fortuitous lottery bounce to draft Ja Morant, it will raise a key question.
What to do with point guard Mike Conley?
Conley, 31, has made it clear he would welcome a trade to pair him with a contender for the final two years of his contract.
But Conley also could serve as an excellent mentor to Morant, the former Murray State star who turns 20 in August.
Here are the scenarios and potential outcomes for the Grizzlies if they take Morant:
Trade Mike Conley before the season
How it works: You deal Conley either before the draft or after free agency.
What you get: When the Jazz and Grizzlies discussed a Conley trade before this season’s trade deadline, Utah reportedly offered a first-round pick, second-round pick and two expiring contracts (Derrick Favors and Ricky Rubio) for Conley.
If the teams revisit a Conley trade this offseason, perhaps the Grizzlies could manage to extract two firstround picks from the Jazz and get some cap relief to spend in free agency with Conley’s salary off the books.
It would lessen the sting of a looming obligation to convey a firstround pick to Boston in 2020 or 2021
and help the Grizzlies replenish their roster with young talent.
Positive outcome: Losing a staple like Conley and replacing him with a rookie playing big minutes assures there will be some rough times. But if the Grizzlies can use a Conley trade to snag or retain a quality shooting guard, the 2019-20 season could resemble the Hawks’ 2018-19 campaign.
After 10 straight playoff appearances, Atlanta tumbled to 24 wins in the 2017-18 season. But they embraced their rebuild by trading leading scorer Dennis Schroder, a point guard, and selecting point guard Trae Young in last year’s draft.
Young teamed with a promising second-year power forward in John Collins and a rookie shooting guard in Kevin Huerter to improve the team’s win total by five games and form a vision for the future.
Now there is legitimate hope that Atlanta will compete for a playoff spot next season.
Mirroring this path would be a positive outcome for Memphis. If Jaren Jackson Jr. can make the same type of leap that Collins made in Atlanta during his second season and Morant improves the way Young did as a rookie, there will be plenty of reason for optimism.
Negative outcome: The Grizzlies struggle to find or retain a player who can be their shooting guard of the future. So while Morant and Jackson begin developing chemistry, the Grizzlies struggle to reach 30 wins. Jonas Valanciunas hits free agency after the season, and the Grizzlies watch the 2020 draft lottery hoping they land a high enough pick to select James Wiseman.
Keep Mike Conley
How it works: You decline trade offers for Conley and move ahead with a potential starting lineup of Morant, Conley, Kyle Anderson, Jackson and Valanciunas.
What you get: One appealing part of keeping Conley is allowing Morant to apprentice under a great point guard and franchise ambassador. Plus, if the Grizzlies keep Conley, it might be a sign they believe they can compete for the eighth playoff spot in the Western Conference.
Positive outcome: Morant and Conley flourish playing together; Jackson makes a big improvement; and Anderson and Valanciunas stay healthy and find clear roles. With this group, Memphis is within striking distance of the eighth playoff spot during the season’s second half and positions itself to convey a top-six protected pick to Boston before it becomes unprotected in 2021.
Encouraged by the progression of Morant and Jackson, Conley chooses not to entertain the early termination option in his contract. He stays in Memphis for the 2020-21 season as the Grizzlies make a playoff push.
Neutral outcome: Morant learns from Conley for a few months, but the team is clearly not going to be near the playoff picture. So while the Grizzlies still have leverage with Conley, they trade him before the trade deadline for a collection of assets to help with the rebuild.
Negative outcome: Valanciunas declines his player option and leaves in free agency before this season. Morant and Conley struggle to find chemistry in the backcourt. Memphis struggles; Conley grows restless and threatens to exercise his early termination option after the season. The franchise trades him at the deadline for a package that is less lucrative than what was offered this offseason.
Reach Grizzlies beat writer David Cobb at david.cobb@commercialappeal.com or on Twitter @Davidwcobb.