Mississippi primary election takeaways
Some key takeaways from Tuesday’s primary elections, and upcoming runoffs:
On to the runoffs. Battle lines defined
Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Waller Jr. has an uphill, but not insurmountable, challenge trying to best Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves in the GOP governor’s runoff on Aug. 27.
Reeves drew 49% of the first vote, just one point short of what he needed to win the nomination outright without a runoff. He carried 70 of Mississippi’s 82 counties and he’s extremely wellfunded to blanket the air waves with advertising and have get-out-the-vote workers knocking on doors for the three-week sprint.
Waller is keying on the fact that 52% of voters chose someone other than Reeves, and that their policies differ starkly in several key areas — including Medicaid expansion, a gasoline tax to fix roads and teacher pay.
Other key runoffs, for the attorney general race, district-wide races and local contests, promise to help keep voter interest and turnout relatively high.
Battle lines will be drawn both on policy platforms and regionally.
The gubernatorial campaigns are likely to focus heavily on the Desoto County area, where third-runner state Rep. Robert Foster won his home turf and there are many votes up for grabs. They’ll also battle on the Coast, where Reeves ran up the score in Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties and the Metro Area of Hinds, Madison and Rankin counties, where Waller prevailed.
The Foster factor
First-term Republican state lawmaker Foster as a third-runner had a major impact on Tuesday’s GOP governor primary. And depending on whether he weighs in to endorse a runoff candidate, he’s likely to have a major impact going forward.
Foster threw the race into a runoff between Reeves and former state Supreme Court justice Waller.
Foster, originally projected to be a single-digit also ran, over-performed and drew 65,000, or 18% of the vote — this without running a single television ad.
Waller under-performed many projections with 122,000 or 33% of the vote, but this kept front-runner Reeves at 49%, shy of the majority needed to prevent a runoff.
Foster on Wednesday was keeping his powder dry on whether he would endorse a runoff candidate — but given his potential sway and performance in his first attempt at statewide office, he’ll be the subject of much political attention for a long time to come.
Historic GOP primary turnout
The Mississippi Republican Party had historic primary turnout and topped Democratic primary voting for the first time.
Nearly 367,000 people voted in the GOP primary, with a little less than 280,000 in the Democratic primary. In the past, Republicans have ruled the roost in statewide general and federal elections, but many people pragmatically voted in Democratic primaries because that’s where the action was on many local races. In 2015, the last staterace primary, 279,000 Republicans voted.
State Republican Party Chairman Lucien Smith chalked up the large turnout to more Mississippians realizing “the only conservative party in this state is the Republican Party.”
Veteran, powerful lawmakers ousted
Primary voters across the state benched several long-time and powerful state legislators. These included Republican Speaker Pro tem Greg Snowden of Meridian, the second-ranking member of the House leadership, and Rep. Jeff Smith, R-columbus, longtime chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee.
Longtime Democratic Sen. Debbie Dawkins of Pass Christian and Republican Rep. Gary Staples of Laurel, chair of House Energy, were also sidelined in their primaries.
In Snowden’s case, his pleading no contest last year to a DUI refusal likely played a role in his ouster. He was charged after he ran his car into the back of another parked at a red light near his home in Meridian.
Geoff Pender, Giacomo Bologna and Luke Ramseth
The Trump effect
Particularly in the GOP primaries — up and down the ticket — Mississippi candidates touted their support for President Donald Trump as much or more as their policies and platforms.
Some candidates, down to the county level, in their campaign mailers stamped themselves as a “certified Trump supporter.”
Despite entreaties by Gov. Phil Bryant for his friend Trump to endorse Reeves in the GOP gubernatorial primary, the president did not do so. But Trump will still be the spirit animal of many Republican candidates up and down the ticket in the runoffs and the November general election.
Contact Geoff Pender at 601-961-7266 or gpender@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter.