Games that will impact CFP race
Just a third of the college football season remains, and the results on the field take on added importance with the Playoff committee now weighing in on a weekly basis. One thing is certain – the ranks of the unbeaten will be reduced by at least two in Week 11. Here are the games with the most impact on the College Football Playoff picture.
No. 2 LSU at No. 1 Alabama
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
And here we are at last. Fans can only hope this week’s game of the century, fraught with national championship and Heisman implications, comes close to living up to its hype. How a loss in this game will ultimately be viewed remains to be seen, but the winner, barring an unfathomable collapse, can be all but penciled into the SEC championship game in less than a month.
LSU (No. 1 AP) and Alabama (No. 2 AP) feature top-five scoring offenses averaging over 46 points a game. They probably won’t quite put up those numbers, but they’ll almost certainly exceed the 9-6 final result when they last met as the nation’s two top-ranked teams in 2011. The defensive units aren’t as airtight as we’ve seen from these programs in recent years, and the dazzling array of receiving threats on both sides should make their share of big plays. Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa will in all likelihood be ready to go. His arsenal includes four targets with at least 21 catches, led by Jerry Jeudy (52) and Devonta Smith (43). Derek Stingley Jr., the Tigers’ excellent freshman cover corner, can only match up against one of those guys at a time. S Grant Delpit can help a bit, but the entire secondary must count on DE Breiden Fehoko to get after Tagovailoa. LSU’S QB Joe Burrow’s primary weapons are WRS Justin Jefferson and Ja’marr Chase, and the unit got a boost with the return of Terrace Marshall in the victory against Auburn. Crimson Tide S Xavier Mckinney does a good job keeping big plays to a minimum, but DE Raekwon Davis and LB Anfernee Jennings will try to disrupt the timing.
No. 5 Penn State at No. 13 Minnesota
Saturday, noon ET, ABC
One of this week’s clashes of unbeatens was perhaps expected. This one, however, was almost certainly not anticipated by even the most dedicated observers of the sport when the campaign began. The Nittany Lions, of course, are frequent visitors to the top 10 and are accustomed to competing for and occasionally winning the Big Ten. The Golden Gophers, on the other hand, are rowing their boat into uncharted waters at 8-0 for the first time since 1941. Key contests remain for both teams in their respective divisions, but a win here would be quite meaningful.
After squeaking by with victory margins of seven points or fewer in their first four outings, the Gophers have prevailed by increasingly more convincing scores since. But now QB Tanner Morgan and RB Rodney Smith face a more accomplished defense than they’ve yet encountered in the early portion of their league schedule. Nittany Lions LBS Micah Parsons and Cam Brown lead a ground defense that allows less than 2 yards per rushing attempt, which could put a damper on the Gophers’ breadand-butter zone read plays. PSU QB Sean Clifford has grown more comfortable running the attack, and WR K.J. Hamler has added a needed big-play element.
Iowa State at No. 8 Oklahoma
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox
The Sooners (No. 9 AP) were last seen nearly pulling off a huge comeback but falling short at Kansas State two weeks ago. They return home to take on the Cyclones, who were a popular choice as a potential Big 12 sleeper at the start of the season. Iowa State has flashed a bit more of that potential after a slow start, so the Sooners must bounce back quickly to avoid a fatal blow to their Playoff hopes.
Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts remains in the Heisman conversation, but a few illtimed miscues forced him to play catchup in the setback in the Little Apple. He and big-play threat Ceedee Lamb will be up against a defense, anchored by LB Marcel Spears Jr., that until a home loss to Oklahoma State in its most recent contest hadn’t given up many long scoring plays. Cyclones QB Brock Purdy has 15 scoring throws but can’t afford to add to his seven interceptions.
No. 10 Baylor at TCU
Saturday, noon ET, FS1
And here we find the lone Big 12 squad yet to taste defeat this season, a scenario even the most ardent supporters of the Bears probably didn’t anticipate. They look to set themselves up for back-to-back showdowns with Oklahoma and Texas but must first handle business in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs haven’t been the most consistent bunch, but their takedown of the Longhorns a couple of weeks ago indicates they can be dangerous.
Baylor (No. 11 AP) had to work a bit harder than expected to escape West Virginia on Halloween thanks to some special teams breakdowns and offensive line issues. QB Charlie Brewer still has a healthy 67.6 completion percentage. He’ll now try to steer clear of TCU LB Garret Wallow, TCU’S defensive leader who finds his way to the ball often.
No. 20 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network
With the ACC all but absent from the Playoff rankings, Wake Forest (No. 22 AP) is the closest thing there is to a challenger for Clemson. It would actually help the Tigers if the Demon Deacons were still ranked when they square off a week from now – assuming Clemson handles its end of things at North Carolina State. But first Wake must get by the Hokies, who missed an opportunity for a quality win for the league last week at Notre Dame but still have a path to the Coastal Division title.
Deacons QB Jamie Newman returned from a shoulder injury and turned in a dominant performance against the aforementioned N.C. State squad last week. The Hokies could be more difficult to solve, thanks to playmakers like LB Rayshard Ashby and S Divine Deablo. But the offensive side has been more problematic for Tech, with freshman Quincy Patterson pressed into service at quarterback due to injuries.