The Commercial Appeal

Fact check: Virus ‘here to stay’

Experts: COVID-19 cases won’t disappear soon

- Eric Litke

The debate over when to reopen states amid the coronaviru­s pandemic has escalated quickly.

Frustratio­n with the extended quarantine is mounting on social media, and residents around the country have defied social distancing orders to attend rallies demanding an easing of restrictio­ns.

Protesters say the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed enough to justify reopening, given the mounting economic and health impacts.

One viral Facebook post – making the case to move toward reopening in Wisconsin – says we need to get used to living in a world with COVID-19.

It was posted April 26 by Dr. David Murdock, a research cardiologi­st with the Aspirus health system in Wausau who was placed on leave after attending an April 19 reopen rally.

“The consensus medical view is that this virus is here to stay. In other words, this virus cannot be defeated simply by staying inside for a couple of months,” wrote Murdock, who said he was observing from the rear of the rally at a safe distance to gather material for a memoir. “The world will likely see periodic outbreaks, and we need to accept that and be prepared to deal with COVID long term.”

Murdock makes an array of points in the wide-ranging post, which has been shared more than 2,000 times. But we’re especially interested in the claim about the longevity of COVID-19.

Of course, the “Safer at Home” order from Gov. Tony Evers – and similar efforts across the country, including guidance from President Donald Trump – is not designed to eradicate the disease. It was implemente­d to slow the spread so hospitals aren’t overwhelme­d.

Understand­ing that, we still wanted to examine the underlying claim.

COVID-19 has sickened more than 3 million and killed more than 230,000 globally.

Claim: COVID-19 is ‘here to stay’

Many experts have said a true return to normalcy likely isn’t possible until a vaccine is widely available, which could be a year or more.

“We’re going to probably all need to be used to social distancing for the next 12 to 18 months,” John Raymond, CEO of the Medical College of Wisconsin, said during an April 27 online briefing for the Greater Milwaukee Committee. “Until hopefully we have an effective vaccine, it’s likely we’re going to be living with COVID-19.”

But a vaccine doesn’t necessaril­y mean the end of COVID-19.

“Absent a vaccine, I think it would quite likely become like seasonal flu or perhaps like some of the other coronaviru­ses that we are familiar with,” said Bill Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiolo­gy at Harvard University’s School of Public Health. “It is entirely plausible that this could become part of our regular landscape of respirator­y virai infections.”

The vaccine he references would be a theoretica­l one that is 100% effective and gives lifelong immunity. But vaccines are “almost never perfect,” notes Barry Bloom, a professor of public health at Harvard.

Bloom also expressed concern over the volume of misinforma­tion about COVID-19 vaccinatio­ns on social media, which include a host of conspiracy theories about pushing people to vaccinate and concerns about how the vaccines may be dangerous. That could affect willingnes­s to take a vaccine once it’s available.

“The vaccine is only a tool if it’s used,” Bloom said.

What we don’t know

Hanage said an array of key unknowns will determine the long-term future of COVID-19:

❚ Whether people can get reinfected, and how severe those recurrence­s would be;

❚ How much immunity results from minor infections;

❚ How the summer warm-up alters infectious­ness (based on both people’s behavior and the reaction of the virus itself; generally, coronaviru­ses don’t survive as long in warmer weather).

Even if the virus does stick around, though, it may not be the threat it is today.

“If that immunity is not very longlastin­g – and we have good reason from other coronaviru­ses including the original SARS, that it won’t be – what type of infections will people have when their immunity starts to wane?” Hanage said. “The first thing to say is we don’t know, but I think it’s also plausible to suggest they might be milder.”

It’s worth noting that SARS – a disease caused by a coronaviru­s that killed 774 during a 2003 outbreak – has been eradicated. But there are key differences that make COVID-19 a more formidable foe.

In a March 5 article for The Lancet medical journal, Annelies Wilder-smith noted COVID-19 can be passed on by those with minor symptoms or none at all; SARS patients generally weren’t contagious until they had severe symptoms. And COVID-19 is more easily transmitte­d and has had a more prevalent community spread.

“The virus remains, and we need to learn how to deal with it,” said Wildersmit­h, a professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “Certainly lockdown is only a temporary solution whilst we gear up to provide the true solution. Yes, we need to prepare for this reality.”

Charles Branas, chair of the epidemiolo­gy department at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, said eradicatin­g the virus like we did with smallpox “will be challengin­g, to say the least.” Ali Khan, dean of the College of Public Health and professor of epidemiolo­gy at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, said COVID-19 sticking around is “likely, but not inevitable.”

Our ruling: True

Based on what we know now, we rate this claim as TRUE. Experts say it’s still too early to know this with complete certainty, since much remains unknown about the nature of immunity. And we have no clue how effective a future vaccine may be. But a best guess at this point is that COVID-19 could indeed stick around long-term. Experts say there’s also reason to believe that lingering version could be less severe.

 ?? TED S. WARREN/AP ?? Jack Mcquade, the owner of The Swiss Restaurant and Pub in Tacoma, Wash., helps pack up food for essential workers in the city.
TED S. WARREN/AP Jack Mcquade, the owner of The Swiss Restaurant and Pub in Tacoma, Wash., helps pack up food for essential workers in the city.

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