How much should Grizzlies’ bubble losses matter?
There was the 45-second sequence in the second quarter, when the Toronto Raptors took the lead for good in their 10899 win over the Grizzlies on Sunday afternoon, when Dillon Brooks had an awful turnover, took an awful shot and committed an awful foul.
There was the third quarter, when Toronto extended its lead and Brooks had a sequence spanning 1 minute, 30 seconds that went like this: missed a contested 3pointer in which he failed to pass to a wide open Grayson Allen in the corner, missed a contested pull-up jumper out of a timeout and missed another 3-pointer after that.
And then there was the fourth quarter, when Brooks shot 5-of-7 from the field for 12 points to help the Grizzlies cut a 17point deficit to four while hounding Raptors star Kyle Lowry on defense.
This is not intended to be a referendum solely on Brooks, even though he's become the most polarizing Grizzlies player since the NBA restart began. It's meant to highlight the task facing decision makers in Memphis, a task that loomed large before the team arrived in Orlando and feels even more important now that we're six games into the franchise's bubble experience. The Grizzlies own a 1-5 record thanks, in part, to three major injuries but nonetheless sit in a good position to qualify for next weekend's play-in games.
So how much stock should we put into what's unfolding right now? How should it affect the future, both this offseason and for years to come?
The answers to those questions carry far more significance than whether Memphis earns a spot in the playoffs over the next week.
Particularly given who dealt the Grizzlies their latest defeat.
The Raptors won an NBA title last year with one superstar (Kawhi Leonard) and a secondary All-star (Lowry) leading a very good eight-man rotation. The rotation has proved to be so strong that Toronto might well emerge from the Eastern Conference again even after its one superstar left over the offseason.
The best part of this better-than-expected Grizzlies' season, the part no loss in the bubble can take away, is that they might have found their superstar and secondary All-star in Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., respectively.
But what about the players around them?
It seems rookie Brandon Clarke fits in nicely, with the potential to become the late first-round steal that Pascal Siakam became in Toronto. The same goes for Tyus Jones, who appears to be the perfect
backup point guard for Morant.
There’s also De’anthony Melton, who emerged as such a disruptive and versatile option before the NBA suspended its season in March. He played poorly in the Grizzlies’ first three losses in Orlando, but he’s rebounded over the past two games, including a six-steal performance Sunday.
Melton is also a restricted free agent this year. He’s clearly a higher priority for Memphis than Josh Jackson, the former lottery pick who came over to the Grizzlies along with Melton in a trade with Phoenix last year.
But how much money is too much? It probably depends on where Grizzlies management sees Melton fitting into the rotation a couple of years from now, when Memphis will want to be competing with the NBA’S elite.
Nobody knows what to make of Justise Winslow because he still hasn’t played for the Grizzlies. Next season has turned into a tryout to see whether he’s a viable part of the franchise’s long-term rotation, and to see whether he can stay healthy for an extended period of time.
Jonas Valanciunas and Kyle Anderson are useful but feel expendable by the time their contracts expire in three and two years, respectively.
And who can forget Allen? He would have been out for the remainder of the season had the season not been interrupted for four months by a pandemic. He’s been the breakout star of these seeding games, showing off the most consistent 3-point shot on the team and continuing an upward trend in his play that really began right before he got injured in January.
Did the Grizzlies discover their own version of Danny Green in Orlando? Or was this just a hot streak that coincided with more eyeballs affixed on the Grizzlies’ playoff chase?
Brooks, of course, seemed to be part of this equation when he agreed to a threeyear, $35 million extension in February. It was an affordable deal for a player who, at the time, was providing a needed scoring punch and underappreciated defense on the perimeter around Morant and Jackson. He resembled a bigger Fred Vanvleet.
But Brooks is shooting 36.5% from the field since he signed that new deal – a span of 21 games – and he’s attempted more shots in the bubble (110) than any other Grizzlies’ player. His lack of recognition about where he’s situated on the team’s pecking order, and what constitutes a good shot, is negating the relentless effort and attitude with which he plays.
On Sunday, he tied his season-high with 26 field-goal attempts. Here’s a sampling of players who haven’t attempted that many shots in a game during the NBA restart: Lebron James, James Harden, Damian Lillard, Joel Embiid and Leonard.
So is Brooks more like the guy who had a huge role in the Grizzlies’ surge through December and January? Or is he more like the guy in Orlando?
He certainly doesn’t feel like the answer as a third wheel to Morant and Jackson anymore, but the controlled version of Brooks – the player who showed up for the fourth quarter Sunday – could have a role on a contending Grizzlies team.
The good news is that the farther the Grizzlies go, if they can make the NBA’S play-in game and perhaps move on to a first-round matchup with the Lakers, the more likely answers are to emerge.
About Brooks. About Melton. About Allen. About what the roster around Morant and Jackson might look like for years to come.
You can reach Commercial Appeal columnist Mark Giannotto via email at mgiannotto@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter: @mgiannotto