Record early voting transforming election
Democrats lead trend, but GOP late rush likely
Nearly 21 million Americans have already cast ballots in the 2020 election, a record-shattering avalanche of early votes driven both by Democratic enthusiasm and a pandemic that has transformed the way the nation votes.
The 20.8 million ballots submitted as of Friday afternoon represents 15% of all the votes cast in the 2016 presidential election, even as eight states are not yet reporting their totals and voters still have more than two weeks to cast ballots. Americans’ rush to vote is leading election experts to predict that a record 150 million votes may be cast and turnout rates could be higher than in any presidential election since 1908.
“It’s crazy,” said Michael Mcdonald, a University of Florida political scientist who has long tracked voting for his site Electproject.org. Mcdonald’s analysis shows roughly 10 times as many people have voted compared with this point in 2016.
“We can be certain this will be a highturnout election,” Mcdonald said.
So far the turnout has been lopsided, with Democrats outvoting Republicans by a 2-1 ratio in the 42 states included in The Associated Press count. Republicans have been bracing themselves for this early Democratic advantage for months, as they’ve watched President Donald Trump rail against mail-in ballots and raise worries about fraud. Poll
ing, and now early voting, suggest the rhetoric has turned his party’s rank and file away from a method of voting that, traditionally, they dominated in the weeks before Election Day.
That gives Democrats a tactical advantage in the final stretch of the campaign. In battleground states, Democrats can turn their time and money toward harder-to-find infrequent voters.
Both parties anticipate a swell of Republican votes on Election Day that could dramatically shift the dynamic.
“The Republican numbers are going to pick up,” said John Couvillon, a GOP pollster who is tracking early voting. “The question is at what velocity, and when?”
Couvillon said Democrats can’t rest on their voting lead, but Republicans are making a big gamble. A number of fac
tors, from rising virus infections to the weather, can affect in-person turnout on Election Day.
“If you’re putting all your faith into one day of voting, that’s really high risk,” Couvillon said.
That’s why Trump’s campaign and party are encouraging their own voters to cast ballots by mail or early and inperson. The campaign, which has been sending volunteers and staffers into the field for months despite the pandemic, touts a swell in voter registration in key swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania – a reversal of the usual pattern as a presidential election looms.
But it’s had limited success in selling absentee voting. In key swing states, Republicans remain far less interested in voting by mail.