Election night will be media’s biggest challenge yet
Caution expected before announcement of winner
There is no independent arbiter in the United States to declare the race for president is over. Of course, there are hundreds of millions of voters and the affirmation of the Electoral College, but to make that first authoritative declaration of victory? Americans traditionally default to news outlets to call election winners.
A lot of things have changed since journalists started reporting election results, but much of the process is fundamentally the same. It is math, not magic. However, experts agree 2020 is the time to let go of old ideas about how election night will work because if people have learned anything this year, it's that things don't always go as planned.
News organizations are expected to exercise extreme caution before declaring a winner, and an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots to count could create challenges for how election officials and journalists report the results and how voters receive them.
It will be more important than ever for media outlets to continually explain these realities and maintain transparency about the vote count to fend off conspiracy theories about the validity of the vote.
“There's no doubt that this is going to be a much more complicated election for news organizations to keep track of when it comes to call,” said Betsy Fischer Martin, former NBC news executive. “A lot of them are looking for ways to think and talk differently to help viewers really understand what's going on.”
How do outlets call elections?
There's a consensus among election officials and journalists, as well as most politicians even if they won't say it publicly, that the election count could take weeks.
Every major news organization has a hierarchy in place for calling elections, which most commonly includes teams of reporters, stringers, clerks and analysts. The Associated Press, widely considered the gold standard in election calling, relies on employees on the front lines and polling tools to project winners across the country.
First, AP stringers (staffers hired in this case specifically to gather election information) report to county election centers shortly before polls close and get ready to phone in the raw vote to AP election centers. AP'S vote entry clerks answer their calls and enter the votes into an online system.
Then, computer programs and fulltime election research and quality control analysts check for inaccuracies. The numbers are sent to the AP'S network of more than 15,000 members, which include The Commercial Appeal, and shared with the public soon after. When decision desks determine one candidate has no mathematical path toward victory, a winner is finally announced.
The Commercial Appeal and other newsrooms in the USA TODAY Network rely on AP to make the call, although the newsrooms will report when two or more reputable newsrooms call a race.
When the right call is not to call
Most newsrooms call elections when winners are certain, not likely. This guiding principle is meant to avoid blown calls like the infamous premature calling of the Florida vote in 2000.
But the pressure to have the story first can be tempting. That's why news organizations hold off on calling an election for three main reasons — it is too early, too close or polls are still open.
Some decision desks even go as far as to refuse to see what and when other news outlets are calling because getting calls right is important to protect credibility with audiences.
“Too early and too close to call are terminologies that really came out of a lot of the handwringing in past elections,” Martin said. “I think there is this kind of renewed awareness that it's most important to actually be right not to be just first.”
Races are too early to call when there are not enough votes to determine a definite winner. The majority of media outlets refrain from calling state vote counts until polls have closed because in-person, and this year mail-in, ballots have yet to be totaled.
“The media and the public need to have patience,” said Rick Hasen, election law expert and professor at the University of California, Irvine. “This is not unusual — it's the process working.”
How will calling change in 2020?
Experts agree that unless the 2020 presidential election is a blowout, the pandemic will likely play havoc on election night rituals like knowing who the next leaders of the country are before bedtime. The sudden spike of mail-in ballots and their slow count could mean days or weeks of uncertainty if the election is close.
Accuracy and numbers are crucial parts of journalism, but another is narrative. The language used by reporters and commentators will, and should be, focused on information rather than political themes, Martin said.
“I think you'll see a lot more transparency from news organizations and coverage that is dedicated to explaining things as they are,” Martin said. “It will be their responsibility to talk about how the votes are coming in and how the votes are counted.”
On election night, networks are expected to add cautionary notes to their coverage explaining how vote totals are preliminary and subject to change as more mail-in ballots arrive. Outlets will use different language and models to display election results while combating conspiracy theories.
“Typically, the networks would show the percentage of precincts reporting votes. That terminology is going to be changed this year to say ‘percentage of expected vote' because it's misleading to say some percentage of precincts are reporting when actually, it doesn't include any of the absentee ballots,” Martin said.
These lofty expectations and the hefty responsibility are put on news organizations already fatigued by the coronavirus pandemic and partisan discord in the nation.
The most daunting task? Explaining the facts and showing the truth in a way that the majority of voters realize a legitimately run election is correct.
“(This year) will be different for sure,” Martin said. “Networks will have to be more cautious and attentive to disinformation than ever before. Everyone is right to be on alert.”