These voters could reshape the South
Younger, more diverse group flocking to region
Election Day ushered in a new era, as a younger, more diverse coalition of voters in the region came together with an emphatic message: The South is changing.
The nature of that change varies depending on where you look.
Georgia has become a definitive new battleground, driven by record-breaking mobilization and increasing diversity. President-elect Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, holds a slim lead in the state. It is tight enough to trigger a recount, but is still something that would have seemed inconceivable a few years ago.
Now Democrats are pinning their long-shot hopes of flipping control of the U.S. Senate to two competitive Georgia runoffs expected in January, a surprising development in a region stacked with red states.
Bruce Oppenheimer, a professor emeritus of political science at Vanderbilt University, said signs of an impending swing state in the South were bubbling for years.
A strong base of support among Black voters in Atlanta and other Georgia cities grew to include a surge in the suburbs as more young and racially diverse residents flocked to the state for jobs. Politician Stacey Abrams’ efforts to boost voter registration and turnout through her nonprofit Fair Fight capitalized on the opportunity for Democrats.
“It’s a story of American politics,” Oppenheimer said of the ongoing evolution.
“We’ve gotten so used to thinking everything will remain the same,” he said. “The South has been less homogeneous than people think it is for a longer period of time.”
U.S. Census data show subtle shifts that took place over decades.
Georgia’s population grew by more than 2 million people from 2000 to 2019. The state saw diversity increase over that timeframe.
White residents made up 65.1% of the Georgia population in 2000, compared with 60.2% in 2019. At the same time, black residents grew from 28.7% of the Georgia population to 32.6%.
Learotha Williams, a historian and Tennessee State University professor, said Abrams upstart run for Georgia governor in 2018 galvanized growing but marginalized populations. Her work to register new voters might have made the difference in 2020, he said.
“That was the spark, her doing things a different way,” Williams said. “This thing that we’re witnessing now really blows my mind but it’s a testament to a lot of work.”
Other southern states offer opportunities, challenges for Democrats
Democrats hope Georgia is a bellwether, along with Virginia, showing a new region of opportunity for the party.
There are indications other southern states might be trending in a similar direction, albeit at a slower pace.
North Carolina, which is tipping for Republican President Donald Trump by a narrow margin, could slide to the left in coming election cycles as its urban areas continue to expand, pulling in younger and more diverse residents from other parts of the country.
“These are big growth states with burgeoning economies,” said David Darmofal, a political science professor at the University of South Carolina. “That’s helping to turn these states purple.”
Although South Carolina is firmly entrenched for Republicans now, political scientists say the state is beginning to mirror Georgia’s shift with a large mobilized Black population and a growing auto industry bringing in higher paying union jobs.
Kent Syler, a political science professor at Middle Tennessee State University and former Democratic political operative, said Georgia was an eye-opening signal of possibilities for his party.
“It was certainly more than pundits trying to create more swing states,” Syler said. “You can see the votes.”
Other parts of the South show change cuts both ways.
While some in the South shift blue, Tennessee stays deep red
Nashville lurched to the left in recent years, and flipped a state senate seat to the left on Tuesday. The 10 least conservative counties in Tennessee are in line with trends elsewhere in the South — they are clustered around cities, have higher percentages of people of color and have populations on the rise.
But Democratic growth in the state capital is countered by conservative strongholds in other areas.
At the state level, Tennessee is red as ever. Trump handily carried the state with 61% of the vote, the same share he received in 2016.
A passionate base of conservative support has expanded in rural and mostly white parts of the Volunteer State since 2008. Statewide leaders Gov. Bill Lee, Sen. Marsha Blackburn and incoming senator Bill Hagerty, are all to the right of their predecessors.
Tennessee is more homogenous than some of its neighbors, with a larger population of rural white voters who offset urban growth. The same can be said of Arkansas and Alabama, which have largely become more conservative over time.
Political scientists predict realignment of resources
As parts of the South and the Sunbelt show more political malleability, segments of the Midwest are drifting further toward the right.
“This may be the last election in which we see Democrats doing significant advertising in Ohio or Iowa,” Darmofal said.
Darmofal predicted Democrats would shift those resources south to reflect the new realities of the map.
Syler said he will be watching Georgia to see how its blue tilt plays out in the upcoming Senate runoffs. The state’s heightened national profile could attract more money, organizing and high-profile candidates to the region.
“Success breeds success,” Syler said. “It’s still something of an uphill fight but its obviously one that with the right get out the vote effort could surprise people.”
But Syler cautioned that continued strength of the conservative rural vote preview a daunting challenge for Democrats.
It is unclear how the outcome of the presidential election might affect the Republican and Democratic coalitions as they adjust to a new normal in Washington.
“The whole political map and strategy are very complicated now for both parties,” Syler said. “It’s a total wide-open ballgame.”
Allie Clouse contributed to this report.
Reach Adam Tamburin at 615-726-5986 and atamburin@tennessean.com. Follow him on Twitter @tamburintweets.