Vanderbilt research: No mask mandate helps double deaths
Coronavirus death rates are significantly higher in Tennessee counties that do not require residents to wear masks, according to new Vanderbilt research that highlights concerns about the state’s county-by-county approach to masks and will likely increase pressure on the governor to enact a statewide mandate.
The new research, released on Tuesday morning by the Vanderbilt Department of Health Policy, found counties that never adopted a mask mandate have recorded about four deaths per 100,000 residents as of the first week in October. Counties with mandates have recorded about one or two deaths per 100,000 residents, depending on how early they enacted the mandate.
However, not all of this difference can be attributed exclusively to masks. In counties with mask mandates, residents may be taking more care to protect themselves with hand washing and social distancing, which would contribute to a lower death rate independent of the mask mandate.
The findings also follow to a longstanding health divide in Tennessee: Counties with no mandates are largely rural, and Tennessee’s rural residents are generally older, less healthy and have less access to health care – three factors that exacerbated the virus.
“This analysis shows that strategies, including but not limited to masking while in contact with others, can have real impact on people’s lives,” said John Graves, a Vanderbilt professor, in a news release announcing the new findings. “Mask mandates are associated with greater mask wearing and other behaviors like limiting close contacts with others, and the combined impact is clear and substantial.”
Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee refuses to enact a statewide mask mandate despite urgings from both the White House and a chorus of Tennessee doctors. Instead, Lee punted the decision to the mayors of Tennessee’s 95 counties, many of whom have rejected masks even as the pandemic escalates to new heights.
Protect My Care, an organization pressuring Lee for more aggressive action, said Tuesday the new Vanderbilt research offered more proof that a statewide mandate was long overdue.
“Gov Lee’s ‘fend for yourself ’ strategy IS NOT WORKING. We have tried it his way for months now, and the spread of COVID-19 in our state and hospitalizations are continuing to rise,” the organization said in a statement. “Data from Vanderbilt proves what our doctors and White House Covid Task Force have been stating for months: mask mandates WORK.
Masks are required in about one third of Tennessee counties that are home to about two thirds of the state residents. Masks mandates are least common in rural counties where the virus is spreading the fastest. State Health Commissioner Dr. Lisa Piercey said last month that death rates in rural counties were approximately double urban areas.
As of Tuesday morning, 29 Tennessee counties reported report test positivity rates of at least 15% over the past two weeks – well above the White House threshold for a virus “red zone.” Of those 29 counties with alarming positivity rates, 18 are both rural and currently have no mask mandate.
The new Vanderbilt findings largely align with a prior statement by Tennessee Health Commissioner Lisa Piercey that virus death rates in rural areas are approximately double the rates from urban center. The new findings also build upon prior Vanderbilt research that revealed a similar relationship between mask mandates and hospitalizations from the coronavirus.