Tennessee Democrats consider what’s needed to regain traction
It was another disappointing year for Tennessee Democrats, a group that for years held control of the state legislature but began losing power 15 years ago — a rapid shift from which the party has yet to recover.
And there appears to be no hope in sight for Democrats to take back control of either legislative chamber or the governor’s office, leaving liberals in the Volunteer State outnumbered, outspent and out searching for a strategic path forward.
Their challenge is not unique to the Volunteer State, and certainly not this year.
Around the country this fall, Democrats struggled in down ballot races, failing to flip any state legislative chambers in the country this time around.
While Democrats in Tennessee only gained a single legislative seat this year, just one state to the north, their counterparts in Kentucky lost 13 Democratic seats in the state House as Republicans expanded their supermajority.
Mary Mancini, the six-year chairwoman of the Tennessee Democratic Party, announced a week ago she would not seek reelection to the posi
tion she has held longer than most state party chairs. She did not respond to an interview request.
Party activists around the state quickly began announcing their candidacies for Mancini’s position, a sign that even without momentum, there’s still enthusiasm to rebuild the party in Tennessee.
It’s an undertaking that will involve reprioritizing limited resources, finding more effective ways to communicate with people across the state, and, according to some in the party, a change in messaging if Tennessee Democrats want voters to listen.
Tennessee Democrats’ disadvantage is drawn in, and will be again
Dave Cooley, a political consultant and former deputy governor under Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen, describes Tennessee Democrats’ losses in 2010 as “groundshifting,” costing the party their influence in the legislature not only for the upcoming session, but for at least the next decade.
Republicans who had gained control of the Tennessee General Assembly drew new districts — as they’ll soon do again with the most recent Census data — and solidified their advantage over Democrats.
“When redistricting took place, it institutionalized the drawing of some really severe districts. Dozens of totally uncompetitive districts,” Cooley said. “It’s going to require some redrawing, frankly, to be competitive there again, and I’m not sure I’ll see that in my lifetime.”
Though Trump still won there, suburban areas in places like Rutherford, Williamson and Knox counties, saw a slight shift left toward Biden in the 2020 presidential race. It’s a sign that there continues to be opportunities for Democrats to make gains in those communities.
A ‘dead brand’ in many counties
The party has failed to deliver a message that resonates with Tennessee voters — though there are competing theories among Democrats about whether the greater problem is the delivery or the messaging itself.
While there is some disagreement among those active in the party about whether they should spend time and resources in rural Tennessee, their efforts are also coming up short in suburban areas.
But the suburbs appear to be their only hope of incrementally winning back seats, and one that will be complicated when Republicans redraw legislative districts ahead of elections in 2022.
“Unfortunately, I’m not sure that there’s any sort of clear message or cohesive message coming out of the Tennessee Democratic Party as to why people should vote Democratic,” Cooley said, saying the party is an utterly “dead brand in 80 of the 95 counties in Tennessee.”
Democratic challengers have struggled to come up with arguments that convince voters in red districts that the Republican Party isn’t best serving them.
“I don’t think it’s enough to scream and say, ‘Republicans are crazy, don’t vote for them,’” said Emily Passini, a political consultant who has worked on Democratic legislative races in Tennessee and nationally. “That message is not working. Republicans are winning 65 percent of the vote statewide and our legislative candidates are getting killed. Clearly, just saying they’re crazy is not enough.”
Passini, who was chief of staff to former Nashville Mayor David Briley, is now a partner at Greenlight Media Strategies, which provides political direct mail and marketing services. She oversaw the Tennessee House Democratic Caucus’s legislative campaigns in 2006, when Democrats were still the majority party.
Tennessee and the nation aren’t the same place they were nearly 15 years ago, when Bredesen won every county in the state, a landslide victory by 40 percentage points.
In a statewide race for U.S. Senate a dozen years later, Bredesen won just three counties, losing the race by 10 points.
Democratic operatives from then like Passini and Cooley point to the party’s efforts at the time to localize elections, finding well-known candidates focused on specific employment, infrastructure and other projects in a district.
In short, it would be similar now to becoming “the party of broadband,” perhaps the modern-day equivalent of former Democratic Gov. Ned Mcwherter’s four-lane road-building initiative in the late 1980s and early 90s, Cooley suggested. The plan connected rural communities and allowed them to begin to compete for jobs.
“Democrats have the ability in this state to have a sensible and even a winning message on economics,” Cooley said. “The Democratic Party has to be heard on economic issues and not be bogged down with the cultural wars. Because Democrats are not going to win cultural wars in this state. They’re just simply not.”
One economic issue Tennessee Democrats have attempted to focus on in recent years in Medicaid expansion, popular with 60% of voters in the state, according to Vanderbilt University Poll. The party has struggled with translating widespread support for the policy to votes at the ballot box.
Healthcare, childcare, job training and improving wages are messages that are less polarizing and, in many cases, off-putting, than abortion, gun control and LGBT rights. The legislative fight for the latter issues — ones that are still top priorities for some Democrats — can only take place if Democrats win seats.
One Democratic incumbent in the legislature noted that candidates were pummeled this summer by Republicans’ suggestion that Democrats wanted to “defund the police,” an unpopular position among voters in either party. Democrats received little to no support from the state or national party to help change the narrative or clarify that they do not believe police departments should be abolished.
Wade Munday, a Middle Tennessee member of the Democratic National Committee, said the party’s message should be one of “freedom and democracy,” and that Tennessee Democrats have no choice but to step up their game in bringing that message to the masses.
He pointed to the digital footprint of the liberal online site The Tennessee Holler, saying it’s important to “make a lot of noise” in an effort to get average people to consider the issues at stake.
“They’re constantly communicating,” said Munday, who has a podcast with the site. “I think the Tennessee Democratic Party could follow their lead.”
Munday ran unsuccessfully in 2018 for state Senate District 25.
Stephen Clermont, senior data analyst at Change Research, which conducted polling for state House and Senate Democratic candidates in September, said leading up to 2022 statehouse elections, Democrats have to more effectively convey “ways Tennessee Republicans aren’t delivering,” specifically on wages and cost-of-living issues.
The firm declined to provide a summary of their polling.
With limited resources, Democrats must be hyperfocused
There is no denying that Democrats in the state are at a severe disadvantage financially. The money isn’t flowing in for the minority party, which struggles to gain traction on legislation in the two-chamber Republican supermajority.
When Passini worked as the House Democratic Caucus director in 2006, her budget for legislative races that year was nearly $1.5 million.
In one East Tennessee race, for example, House Democrats spent $350,000 that year to keep then-rep. Eddie Yokley in his seat encompassing Greene and Cocke counties.
It was a district that voted solidly red in the U.S. Senate race that year and presidential election two years before, but still reelected Yokley. He was later defeated by Republicans when he ran in 2010 and 2012.
But Democrats now can only dream of having that type of war chest.
After netting one seat in 2018, the House Democratic Caucus this year didn’t flip any, even in competitive suburban districts.
“Hard decisions need to be made if you want to start picking up seats,” Passini said. “Focus on three or four instead of sprinkling on a dozen seats.”
In Shelby County, Gabby Salinas, a promising Democratic candidate who nearly beat incumbent Sen. Brian Kelsey two years ago, lost a House race this year by just several hundred votes.
In Knox County, incumbent Republican Rep. Martin Daniel decided not to seek reelection after narrowly keeping his seat in 2018 by 700 votes.
In Rutherford County, a Democratic challenger came 1,000 votes shy of beating Rep. Mike Sparks in 2018.
“I don’t understand why they weren’t fundraising then for this seat,” said Brandon Thomas, the Democratic candidate against Sparks this time who said he believes both the House caucus and state party could have set aside more resources and focused more on winning the seat.
Thomas — who lost the race — said he got a couple of direct mail pieces from the House caucus and a $3,000 contribution and online banner ads from the state party. An ad for Sparks, meanwhile, was running on cable television. “We as a campaign did what we needed to do to really put on the pressure, but we couldn’t compete with that kind of money,” Thomas said.
Strategists say recruiting for local races, off-year spending will turn the conversation in communities
Candidate recruitment, off-year spending and tactics of reaching voters are other areas where the party needs work, observers say.
There recently appears to be agreement among operatives that Tennessee Democrats must “build a bench,” a reference to having candidates run for local city council, alderman and county commission seats, working on solving problems in their communities and building a name before launching a bid for state office.
Rep. London Lamar, who is among those running for state party chair, said that in rural areas, the party solely needs to focus on winning local seats.
Lamar, D-memphis, pointed to the small towns of Brighton and Mumford in Tipton County, which this fall each elected their first Black aldermen: Deborah Reed and Sonny Foster. The county is deeply red, meanwhile, giving Trump 74% of the vote this election.
Unlike some strategists in the party, Lamar said that in the suburban areas where Democrats are trying to gain ground, candidates should “stand strong on a progressive message,” and appeal to younger voters.
“I think that we have spent so much of our time trying to convince independents and moderate Republicans that they need to come over to our side,” Lamar said. “They are not coming over.”
If elected, Lamar would become the Tennessee Democratic Party’s first African-american chairperson.
“I don’t think they realized the importance of having Black women in leadership until now,” she said.
Reach Natalie Allison at nallison@tennessean.com. Follow her on Twitter at @natalie_allison.