Underdog status might be good for Ole Miss
Maybe it's a good thing that Ole Miss isn't expected to win the Outback Bowl.
The oddsmakers at BETMGM list Ole Miss as a 6.5-point underdog against Indiana (6-1) in the Outback Bowl on Thursday (11:30 a.m., ABC) in Tampa, Florida. Between 2010-11 and 2019-20, SEC and Big 10 teams played 33 bowl games against one another. The Big 10 team was only favored in seven of those games.
The good news for Ole Miss (4-5) is being the underdog hasn't much hindered SEC teams from winning their bowl games. Of those seven SEC underdog games, the SEC team won four times. Not covered the spread. Won. Outright.
In 2018-19, Michigan was a 7.5-point favorite to beat Florida in the Peach Bowl and Penn State was a 6.5-point favorite to beat Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl. Kentucky won by three and Florida won by 26. Michigan was a ninepoint favorite to beat South Carolina in the 2018 Outback Bowl but South Carolina won by seven. And in 2014, Wisconsin was a one-point favorite to beat South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl but the Gamecocks won by 10.
That doesn't mean SEC teams are locks to win as underdogs. Northwestern beat Kentucky in the 2017 Music City Bowl, Michigan beat Florida in the 2016 Citrus Bowl and Ohio State beat Arkansas in the 2011 Sugar Bowl. But it certainly is notable that SEC teams have a winning record against Big 10 squads even when the Big 10 squad is considered to be the better team.
Unfortunately for Ole Miss, the SEC teams that pulled off these upsets didn't look all that much like the Rebels.
Florida (2018), Kentucky (2018), South Carolina (2017 and 2013) were all stout defensive teams. Heading into their bowl games, the four teams allowed an average of 19.4 points per game. Ole Miss allowed 113 more points in nine games this season than the worst defense in that bunch allowed in 12 games.
Indiana has a middle-of-the-pack offense.
The Hoosiers average 30.1 points per game; the FBS average for points per game this season is 29.2.
But Ole Miss' defense is anything but middling. The Rebels are one of seven FBS teams that allowed more than 40 points per game and allowed more yards per game than any other team in college football.
This isn't to say winning with defense is the only way to pull off an upset. Ole Miss' only upset win came in a 42-41 game against a Kentucky defense that allowed 24.7 points per game in its other nine contests. The worst thing Ole Miss could do is go away from the game plan that got it to the Outback Bowl in the first place.
Look a little deeper into the seven SEC-BIG 10 games in this sample. The favored Big 10 team (including the favorites that won their games) score an average of 7.2 points below their season averages and allow an average of 8.3 points more than their season averages.
If that trend is applied to Indiana, it means the Hoosiers would score 23 points and allow 27 points. Which feels unlikely.
The BETMGM over-under total is 66.5 combined points, which that trend prediction would miss by more than two touchdowns.
But that's the path Ole Miss is following behind. SEC teams have had success playing as underdogs against Big 10 teams, even if the SEC teams that did it didn't resemble Ole Miss. The precedent is optimistic, even if the match to the precedent barely fits.
There's historical reason to believe Ole Miss can pull off the upset. You might just need to squint to see it.
Contact Nick Suss at 601-408-2674 or nsuss@gannett.com. Follow @nicksuss on Twitter.