’21 may see record-setting QB changes
Musical chairs, the proverbial “quarterback carousel” – call it what you want, but the NFL'S annual turnover rate among starting QBS could reach an unprecedented level in 2021.
Since the Super Bowl era began in 1966, the most teams to replace an opening-day starter with a new one the following season was 16 in 1999 (when the league expanded with the return of the Cleveland Browns). That figure reached 15 just three years ago.
But now?
ESPN insider Adam Schefter recently set the over/under for teams that could make a change at the most important position in sports at 18, a prediction that seemed borderline hot take at first blush.
The new league year – meaning free agency – doesn't commence until March 17, but one major (agreed upon) trade and a prominent retirement have already set the dominoes in motion. How many more could reasonably fall?
Let's break down all 21 teams that could potentially have a new openingday starter in 2021.
Change is coming
Detroit Lions: Though the deal won't be official until the new league year begins, they've agreed to take a few firstround picks from the Rams, Jared Goff and his massive salary in exchange for Matthew Stafford.
Indianapolis Colts: First, ironman Philip Rivers retired after 17 NFL seasons. Thursday, news broke that Carson Wentz was headed to Indy for a pair of Day 2 draft choices – which seems like a shrewd gamble by GM Chris Ballard given Wentz's pre-existing relationship with Indianapolis coach Frank Reich.
Los Angeles Chargers: It's a technicality, but nevertheless. No, record-setting offensive rookie of the year Justin Herbert isn't going anywhere. But he will contribute to the change count because Tyrod Taylor started one game – Week 1 – in 2020 for the Bolts.
Los Angeles Rams: Coach Sean Mcvay and GM Les Snead have made an extravagant bet that Stafford.
Miami Dolphins: Like fellow 2020 first-rounder Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa began his rookie season on the bench. Even if Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami's leading passer last year, re-signs, Tagovailoa will almost certainly open 2021 as the starter ... unless the Fins actually manage to package him and a few Round 1 picks to the Texans in exchange for Deshaun Watson.
Washington Football Team: Though it's not clear what direction they'll go, we know the WFT won't be rolling with last season's September starter, Dwayne Haskins.
Philadelphia Eagles: Didn't take long for them to become Jalen Hurts' team, last year's second-rounder positioned to replace Afc-bound Wentz.
Change likely
Carolina Panthers: Teddy “Bridge”water is signed for two more seasons, but the team already made a run at Stafford and has been linked to Watson.
Chicago Bears: Like most teams, the Bears would love to get their hands on Watson, whom they bypassed in favor of Mitchell Trubisky atop the 2017 draft, but probably need to focus on a more realistic alternative.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Anyone who even casually follows the NFL fully expects the Jags to draft Clemson's Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall in April.
New England Patriots: The Cam Newton Experience will probably end after one middling season that ended without a playoff berth.
New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees is expected to retire, though he hasn't made it official yet. Do the Saints next turn to Taysom Hill, who started in place of injured Brees four times in 2020, or Jameis Winston?
Switch is feasible
Dallas Cowboys: It's kinda hard to imagine them moving on from Dak Prescott. But Jerry Jones has yet to lock up his star and is looking down the barrel of a $37.7 million franchise tag.
Denver Broncos: Drew Lock was disappointing in his second season, his 15 interceptions tying Wentz for the league lead.
Houston Texans: In what quickly and unexpectedly emerged as this offseason's predominant soap opera, Watson has expressed his desire to leave Houston. The Texans have publicly expressed they have no plans to trade the face of the franchise. However, deadlines – like the fast-approaching 2021 draft – have a way of quickly setting league events in motion.
New York Jets: With multiple firstround picks and a young quarterback to offer, they seem uniquely positioned – along with Miami – to make a strong run at Watson. Failing that, the Jets could certainly still opt to move on from 2018 first-rounder Sam Darnold by resetting the position's financial timer and drafting a new one second overall this spring.
Pittsburgh Steelers: With Rivers and Matt Schaub retiring, Ben Roethlisberger is the lone QB still standing from the 2004 draft – and Big Ben has openly mulled shutting down himself more than once.
San Francisco 49ers: In 31⁄2 seasons with the Niners – when he's been healthy enough to actually play – Jimmy Garoppolo has been good enough to help them to a Super Bowl. It's tantalizing to mull Watson or Prescott coming to Silicon Valley, but those seem like unlikely outcomes. Probably more realistic is for GM John Lynch to move up from his current spot in the draft, 12th overall.
Change possible
Atlanta Falcons: Releasing or trading Matt Ryan, 35, would mean a cap charge of more than $40 million. So don't expect Ryan to be leaving Atlanta. It would be more likely that he loses his job to a rookie quarterback (Justin Fields?) the Falcons could take with the fourth pick of the draft.
Las Vegas Raiders: It seems like Derek Carr's name is floated on the trade market annually, and this year is no different. But he played awfully well last season. Could the Silver and Black get better under center? Sure.
New York Giants: Daniel Jones has been decidedly average though 26 NFL starts. Despite a late push to win the woeful NFC East in 2020, the Giants are probably better served to stick with Jones for another year and try to build up the roster around him.