Realignment would put Memphis at risk
If Oklahoma and Texas jump to SEC, Big 12 suffers
If there's ever a nuclear explosion in this country – the kind that comes from an actual bomb – the federal government warns that the fallout is most dangerous during the first few hours after detonation, and to follow three steps in an attempt to prevent significant radiation exposure.
Get inside, stay inside and stay tuned.
Which, oddly enough, seems like decent advice for the University of Memphis now that college football's version of a nuclear bomb suddenly seems imminent.
The explosive report from the Houston Chronicle that Texas and Oklahoma were in serious discussions to leave the Big 12 for the SEC dropped Wednesday afternoon. All of a sudden, the platitudes and pomp that accompanied the ritualistic return this week of college football media days and preseason predictions ceased to matter as much anymore.
There is no speculation quite like conference realignment speculation, especially once non-denial denials issued by Texas and Oklahoma, and subsequent reporting by the national media, only added credibility to the notion that some major dominos in the college sports paradigm are about to
fall.
So Tiger fans are asking the same question as fans all over the country are asking: What does this mean for my school and my league? The answer is completely different this time as compared to the last time, when Memphis failed in its bid to join the Big 12 back in 2016.
The focus then was on how the Tigers could join a Power Five conference and elevate their standing in the college sports world. The focus now should be on not getting left behind.
Get inside the cozier-than-expected confines of the American Athletic Conference, stay inside with like-minded schools such as UCF, Cincinnati and Houston, and stay tuned to see how the most powerful leagues in the country react should Texas and Oklahoma wind up in the SEC.
Here's the truth: If college football is about to enter an era featuring four super conferences, Memphis is unlikely to be a part of one.
Let's not forget that how Memphis feels about the prospects and potential of Memphis isn't how the rest of the country necessarily feels. We're still just five years removed from the Tigers not even being among the top 11 schools the Big 12 considered for expansion. Schools such as Rice, Tulane and Colorado State were deemed better options.
The landscape is different now, of course. Memphis has improved its academic standing and its facilities since then. The football program has since proven it can be a mainstay atop the AAC, and the AAC has separated itself from the rest of the Group of Five conferences. The dependency on market size isn't the same, either, with the power of cable television waning and the reliance on streaming services rising.
But let's say, in response to the SEC going to 16 teams, the Pac-12, Big Ten and ACC go to 16 schools as well. It's wishful thinking, given the remaining schools in the current Big 12 that would be picked over, and the powerful brands and/or locations of schools such as Notre Dame, BYU, Air Force, Navy, Army, UCF and Houston, that Memphis would be at the top of anyone's list.
In reality, this feels like a huge moment for the AAC. The league has been playing defense since the moment it was created, and here is finally a chance to perhaps gain ground through realignment. Without Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 might not survive and will be a shell of itself if it does. Its days as a power conference would certainly be done just as soon as a new College Football Playoff contract is agreed upon to accompany the expected move to a 12team bracket.
That more egalitarian proposal to naming a national champion enhanced the AAC, which seems to have no chance of earning a playoff spot in the current four-team format. Now the conference could strengthen itself further by mining the scraps potentially left behind by the Big 12.
Who's to say the ACC or the Pac-12 or the Big Ten will even add more schools in response to this alleged power play by Texas and Oklahoma? Is there really a lot of added value for the ACC in pursuing West Virginia, or if the Big Ten picked up Kansas, or the Pac-12 rekindled its courtship of Oklahoma State and Texas Tech from a decade ago?
Perhaps then the Big 12 could withstand this blast and go fishing at the top of the AAC.
Whatever the case may be, Memphis needs to ensure its current position is maintained. That it remains in the best non-power league in the country, regardless if it's called the Big 12 or the AAC or something entirely different. That it's still alongside UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, and maybe even Kansas State or Texas Tech.
Just don't end up like the schools that got left behind in Conference USA the last time a bomb actually landed and changed college sports forever. mgiannotto@gannett.com
Twitter: @mgiannotto