Why Kiffin wants Ole Miss to stick with 3-2-6 defense
OXFORD — Ole Miss football still hasn't found a defense that works. But in coach Lane Kiffin's eyes, the Rebels have found a few that don't work.
No. 14 Ole Miss (4-1, 1-1 SEC) is bad on defense. Again. The Rebels are allowing 31 points per game and 432.2 yards per game. This is an improvement over last year, when the Rebels allowed 38.3 points and 519 yards per game. But the end result is still ranking among the three worst in the SEC in scoring defense, total defense, pass defense and rushing defense.
The big difference between 2020 and 2021 for the Rebels' defense is scheme. The Rebels are running a 3-2-6, which puts three defenders on the line of scrimmage, two at linebacker and six in the secondary. It's a strategy that has worked wonders for Iowa State and Arkansas but has led to Ole Miss allowing 93 points and 560 rushing yards in two SEC games.
Kiffin was asked Monday if he has any intention to go away from the 3-2-6 in favor of a more conventional 3-4, 4-3 or 4-2-5 set.
"Sure, we can do that," Kiffin said. "You've got 10 games to watch last year of us doing it. We saw how that worked."
Kiffin compared the criticism of the 3-2-6 to the same he faces for his aggressiveness on fourth downs. The difference is he has decades of advanced analytics at his disposal to justify going for it on fourth-and-short. The only evidence the 3-2-6 works is a couple of good halves of non-conference football and the recent success of other teams you're trying to emulate.
Maybe Ole Miss has the chance to grow into the 3-2-6. Maybe Kiffin's choice to stick with this scheme is like his choice not to pull Matt Corral from the 2020 Arkansas game despite throwing six interceptions. He's showing his players he has faith in them and the plan his coaches have put in place and he's not overreacting to bad outcomes.
The problem with that comparison is Corral is one player who needed to learn one lesson. Ole Miss' defense has been all-around bad for half a decade. The Rebels have ranked in the bottom three in the SEC in total defense every year since 2016, including last-place finishes in 2017, 2018 and 2020.
How bad is it? Here are a few of the things Kiffin and safety A.J. Finley said the Rebels need to get better at:
Tackling. Finley said defenders are tackling too high and letting too many ball carriers fall forward.
Getting off the field. Last week in a 52-51 win over Arkansas, the Razorbacks went 9-for-15 on third- and fourth-down conversions. Kiffin called that the main problem.
Depth. Kiffin said some defenders played as many as 80 snaps against Arkansas and were worn out by the second half. The Rebels can't sub them because they don't have backups they trust to play well.
Allowing big plays. Ole Miss is giving up 16.2 plays of 10 yards or longer per game. Finley said the big plays from Arkansas "got (the Rebels) away from what they'd been doing."
Penalties. At 10 penalties per game, Ole Miss is committing the second-most illegal plays in the FBS. Three 15-yard defensive penalties gave Arkansas first downs.
And all this is coming to a head this week, when the Rebels play at Tennessee (4-2, 2-1) on Saturday (6:30 p.m., SEC Network). The Vols have scored 107 points in their last two games, both SEC wins. Tennessee's offense does a lot of the same things Ole Miss does. And a lot of the same things Arkansas did to hang 51 points on the Rebels.
"With that tempo, guys wear down and guys don't look the same on defense as they did early," Kiffin said. "I think that happened to both sides (in Saturday's game). There's two keys. One is to play more players, but the most important one is to get off the field on third and fourth down and then those drives don't keep going."
If there was a simple fix, Ole Miss would take it. Unfortunately, Ole Miss' defensive problems aren't simple. Depth, tackling, stamina, penalties — these are big-picture problems that cover a wide scope of what defenses need to do.
Either way, the Ole Miss defense allowing 280 rushing yards per game in SEC play now has to slow down an offense averaging 284 rushing yards per game in SEC play.
Doesn't seem like a recipe for something good.