Ole Miss, Auburn are very closely matched
OXFORD — It’s hard to find a closer matchup than Ole Miss vs Auburn.
No. 9 Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1 SEC) visits No. 21 Auburn (5-2, 2-1) on Saturday (6 p.m., ESPN) for a crucial game at the top of the SEC West standings. Just how evenly matched are these teams? ESPN’S SP+, a measure of opponent-adjusted efficiency, grades these teams as identically good.
Even if Auburn and Ole Miss go about things in different ways, the end result is just about the same. Picking this one is hard, and it may come down to a few good or bad bounces just like it has each of the past two years. Here are the Clarion Ledger’s scouting report and prediction for Saturday’s game:
Ole Miss offense vs. Auburn defense
Ole Miss’ offense is battling through injuries. A lot of them. Receivers Jonathan Mingo and Braylon Sanders, tight end Chase Rogers and guard Ben Brown are all hurt, with Brown out for the season. Guard Caleb Warren and running back Jerrion Ealy are recently back from injuries and quarterback Matt Corral is playing through a tweaked ankle sustained two weeks ago.
On the flip side, Auburn’s defense is quite good. The Tigers only allowed more than 30 points once this year, against No. 1 Georgia. The Bulldogs are also the only team to average more than 6 yards per play against the Tigers; Ole Miss has averaged more than 7 yards per play in wins this year.
Even depleted, Ole Miss’ offense has a matchup advantage. Auburn allowed more than 200 yards rushing against Georgia, Arkansas and even Georgia State. The Rebels average the third-most rushing yards per game in the FBS and are averaging three rushing touchdowns per game in SEC play.
If Ole Miss can control the pace on the ground, the offense shouldn’t have trouble scoring.
Auburn offense vs. Ole Miss defense
In theory, Auburn should have a gigantic edge here. Tigers running backs Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter are two of the most talented in the SEC. Ole Miss is allowing 214.8 rushing yards per game in SEC play. If 1+1=2, Bigsby and Hunter should have a field day.
The math isn’t exactly adding up that way, though. Ole Miss’ defense stood up against LSU, allowing just 77 yards on 35 carries. And Auburn’s rushing offense has been inconsistent of late. Bigsby and Hunter only have 233 rushing yards on 58 carries in SEC play, just a nose over 4 yards per carry.
Ole Miss’ pass rush is hot, logging 10 sacks in the last two games. Auburn’s offensive line didn’t allow a sack against LSU or Arkansas but allowed four against Georgia, the only SEC team averaging more sacks per game than Ole Miss.
Consider this a battle of reputation versus reality. On reputation, Auburn should have the edge. Based on recent evidence, Ole Miss’ defense may. If the Tigers control the run game, Ole Miss’ defense will be backpedaling all day. If the Rebels force Bo Nix to throw to win, Ole Miss’ pass rushers will be let loose and create havoc.
Prediction
Auburn 34, Ole Miss 31: I’ve waffled on this one a lot. At the end of the day, I’m going with Auburn. I’m not convinced Ole Miss’ offense is 100% itself and I’m not convinced the defense is really as good as it’s been the last two weeks. If this game was in Oxford, I’d take the Rebels in a close one. Since it’s on The Plains, I’m sticking with the Tigers.
nsuss@gannett.com