UK measuring stick for Mississippi State
STARKVILLE — When the clock hits zero for the final time Saturday night at Davis Wade Stadium, there should be a greater understanding of what this Mississippi State football team is capable of achieving.
The Bulldogs (4-3, 2-2 SEC) are coming off a dominant victory over Vanderbilt. A week before that, Alabama ran away with a win. With No. 12 Kentucky (6-1, 4-1) next on the schedule, coach Mike Leach’s team is facing a squad somewhere between the Commodores and the Crimson Tide — although the Wildcats are much closer to the higher end of that spectrum.
The contest creates a sort of measuring stick. Mississippi State has shown flashes of real growth this season (just ask Kentucky coach Mark Stoops), particularly in an upset win against Texas A&M and with the stifling defense on display against Vanderbilt.
The Wildcats pose an interesting matchup, though. They’re a strong running team; the Bulldogs are a strong run-stopping team.
Kentucky has allowed the 36th fewest passing yards in the country; Mississippi State averages the fourth-most yards through the air.
Here’s a look at how the Bulldogs and Wildcats match up together before they meet Saturday (6 p.m., SEC Network).
Mississippi State offense vs. Kentucky defense
The meeting with Kentucky last season lives on only in nightmares. The Bulldogs threw six interceptions and were shut out on offense. But as Halloween arrives, Mississippi State has needed to drudge up those bad memories and pick them apart anew this week in preparation for another meeting with the Wildcats. But what the Bulldogs see on tape doesn’t represent what they look like now.
“Watching the film,” wide receiver Austin Williams said, “I feel like we’re a completely new offense this year.”
Before quarterback Will Rogers threw a combined five interceptions against Alabama and Vanderbilt, he had limited his turnovers for much of the season, with two picks in his first five games. Mississippi State has moved the ball well, taking underneath passes rather than forcing balls downfield, en route to averaging 374.7 passing yards a game.
Much of that is down to increased reps in the system, Williams said. But that’ll be put to the test against a Kentucky defense that ranks highly in the conference. That unit has allowed just a tick over 200 passing yards per game, and the Wildcats rank third in the SEC in total yards conceded (320.9).
Kentucky offense vs. Mississippi State defense
Quarterback Will Levis hasn’t lit up many defenses this season, but he’s been a steady presence in the pocket and a complement to a running attack that is imposing.
Chris Rodriguez leads the SEC with 775 rushing yards, averaging 110.71 yards per game. Rodriguez manages over 6 yards a carry.
Wan’dale Robinson is a big-play receiver for the Wildcats, but he will likely be matched up against cornerback Martin Emerson, who holds a 78.3 coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus. Emerson and Emmanuel Forbes have combined as a talented cornerback duo in a secondary that has been stout — apart from the occasional big play.
And Mississippi State’s rush defense ranks ninth in the country, allowing 92.7 yards per game.
“They have a really good running back committee,” defensive lineman Cameron Young said. “Their quarterback is very physical. Their O-line is very physical. They have really good receivers. Just a great offense, really.”
A great offense going against a great defense, creating an intriguing matchup Saturday.
Prediction
Kentucky 24, Mississippi State 21: With the way these teams match up against each other, this should be close. The Wildcats haven’t won in Starkville since 2008, but they could edge the Bulldogs on Saturday.
Still, this could go either way, particularly if Mississippi State’s rushing defense performs at the level it did against Vanderbilt.