Memphis football vs. SMU: Scouting report, prediction
November win streak at Liberty Bowl on line
Memphis has its hands full on Saturday (11 a.m., ESPNU) hosting No. 24 SMU. The Mustangs are seventh in both scoring offense and total offense.
The Tigers (4-4, 1-3 AAC) have faced potent offenses this season but none as potent as SMU (7-1, 3-1). Memphis also is putting its 16-game winning streak in November on the line at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium.
Quarterback Seth Henigan will be a game-time decision after missing the loss to Central Florida due to a shoulder injury.
Here’s what to know ahead of Saturday’s kickoff.
SMU’S stable of weapons
Memphis fans remember Reggie Roberson Jr., who had five catches for 243 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s game before suffering a season-ending injury. But Roberson has had help this season.
Senior receiver Danny Gray is speedy and leads the Mustangs with 682 yards and seven touchdowns on 43 catches. Junior Rashee Rice has 466 yards and seven touchdowns on 41 catches and senior tight end Grant Calcaterra has 351 yards on 29 catches.
This is easily the best receiving corps the Tigers have faced this season and Memphis’ defense must be ready to cover all of them.
Pass away
It’s been a tradition under coach Sonny Dykes to have great offenses and leaky defenses. SMU is 111th in passing defense, 14 spots lower than Memphis.
The Tigers’ numbers are skewed facing Navy and a freshman quarterback at UCF but it doesn’t change where SMU is vulnerable. It also emphasizes why the Tigers hope to have Henigan back instead of Peter Parrish, who showed his struggles throwing downfield. SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai will take his shots on the Tigers’ defense. Without Henigan, will the Tigers be able to respond?
Balanced running
Should Parrish start, Memphis could be a run-heavy offense, which didn’t work so well against UCF. Parrish showed electric speed but it came at the expense of a smaller role for Brandon Thomas.
Expect Thomas to have more carries. But SMU will be ready with a run defense that’s allowed just 3.74 yards and is ranked 54th in the country.
It’s another reason the Tigers need a healthy Henigan. Memphis’ best chance to win will be a balanced approach to take advantage of SMU’S secondary instead of trying to run through the Mustangs.
No sacks allowed
A big reason Mordecai has been effective is a clean pocket. SMU has allowed just five sacks, which is the third fewest in the country. Three of the sacks came last week against Houston.
That’s not good news for a Memphis team that has just six sacks.
However, SMU won’t have starting lineman Alan Ali, who is out with an MCL injury.
Memphis has to find ways to create pressure as well as limit Mordecai’s mobility since he’s able to escape defenders to keep the play alive.
Streaks to watch
It’s been five years since Memphis lost in November, with the last defeat to South Florida. November has typically been the month where the Tigers pick up steam.
SMU found out firsthand in 2019 when the Mustangs came to a sold-out Liberty Bowl and lost 54-48.
A loss means Memphis will be under .500 for the first time since 2013. It also means two home losses in a season for the first time since 2016.
Prediction
SMU 45, Memphis 27: The Tigers haven’t shown they can stop a strong passing game and SMU leads the AAC with 38.6 passes per game. Henigan’s availability will decide if this game is somewhat close or downright ugly but Memphis doesn’t have enough to keep up with the Mustangs.