Ole Miss vs. Liberty: Scouting report, prediction
OXFORD — There’s been plenty of talk about the coaches and quarterbacks, but not much discussion about the actual matchup between No. 15 Ole Missand Liberty.
The Rebels (6-2) host the Flames (7-2) on Saturday (11 a.m., SEC Network) at Vaught-hemingway Stadium. The matchup is highlighted by Liberty coach Hugh Freeze’s return to Ole Miss as a visiting coach after leading the Rebels from 2012-16 and the battle between potential first-round quarterbacks Matt Corral and Malik Willis.
But beyond the two obvious storylines, this game is an interesting glimpse into what has to go right and what has to go wrong for a Group of Five school like Liberty to come on the road and upset a top-ranked team like Ole Miss.
Here is the Clarion Ledger’s scouting report and prediction for Saturday’s game.
Ole Miss offense vs. Liberty defense
Who knows which Ole Miss offense we’ll see Saturday? Corral, receivers Jonathan Mingo, Braylon Sanders and Dontario Drummond, tight end Chase Rogers and offensive linemen Ben Brown, Orlando Umana and Caleb Warren are all dealing with injuries.
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said nine of the 11 offensive players who started the first game of the season weren’t able to practice Wednesday and only two or
three will be healthy enough to play against Liberty. As a result, Kiffin said he and his staff are exploring ways to simplify the offense and get some of the younger and less experienced players involved to take advantage of their talents.
Realistically, the result will be an offense that tries to expose Liberty’s weakness at slowing the run. The Flames have the nation’s sixth-best pass defense by yards allowed per game but allowed Syracuse, North Texas and Massachusetts to run for more than 200 yards each. Adjusting for sacks, Liberty
allows 4.2 yards per carry and Ole Miss gains 5.9.
With running backs Henry Parrish, Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy believed to be healthy, expect the Rebels to feature them heavily. If not, Liberty’s active pass rush and talented secondary could present problems for a hobbled Corral and his patchwork receiving corps.
Ole Miss defense vs. Liberty offense
Liberty has allowed the seventhmost sacks in the FBS. Ole Miss’ defense ranked No. 13 in the country in sacks. Capitalizing on that mismatch is the easiest and most obvious key to success for the Rebels.
The other mismatch comes with hot starts. The Flames are remarkably productive in the first quarter, outscoring opponents 84-37. Willis has a passer efficiency rating of 189.9 in the first quarter, which would be the third-best in the FBS for a full game.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, has been outscored 44-13 in the first quarter in its last five games. The Rebels have outscored non-sec opponents 42-7 in the first quarter.
Liberty’s offense is impressive in the red zone as well. The Flames have only made three field goals all season. Instead, they’ve score touchdowns on 74.3% of red zone trips, the ninth-best mark in the FBS.
Ole Miss’ defense has been trending upwards. If it can avoid another slow start, this can be a game it controls. If not, Liberty is built to grind drives and punch in touchdowns in a way that makes this matchup intriguing.
Prediction
Ole Miss 34, Liberty 24: Even despite the injuries, Ole Miss has a massive talent advantage. It’s hard to see a world where Liberty pulls this one out, but it’s also hard to see a situation where Ole Miss pulls away and blows out the Flames like it did to Tulane and Austin Peay.
Contact Nick Suss at 601-408-2674 or nsuss@gannett.com. Follow @nicksuss on Twitter.