Is Corral vs. Willis a battle for title of NFL Draft QB1?
OXFORD — Ole Miss and Liberty meet this week, but the implications the game will have on April 28 might be more interesting.
The No. 15 Rebels (6-2) and Flames (7-2) battle Saturday (11 a.m., SEC Network) as Ole Miss looks to bounce back from a loss and Liberty aims to beat its first Power 5 opponent. But for a number of onlookers, the real story of the game will be the matchup between Ole Miss’ Matt Corral and Liberty’s Malik Willis, both in line to be the first quarterback selected in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Corral has dazzled this season. He’s accounted for 25 touchdowns, 15 passing and 10 rushing, with just two interceptions while averaging 340 yards of total offense per game. His performance has rocketed him up draft boards, bringing him from a projected Day 2 pick in the summer to a strong first-round contender in November.
Willis is another draft darling. He’s scored 30 touchdowns, 21 passing and nine rushing. He leads all FBS quarterbacks in rushing yards and is doing so while completing 66.7% of his passes for 9.5 yards per attempt.
“I get reports from our guys on how hard he is to defend and that NFL scouts love him,” Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said. “I think someone just said walking in here there are going to be 22 NFL teams here for the game, including some general managers. So that speaks
volumes to these two quarterbacks.”
ESPN’S Todd Mcshay ranks Willis as the No. 1 quarterback in the class and Corral at No. 2. ESPN’S Mel Kiper Jr., ranks Corral at No. 2 and Willis at No. 4. The analysts at Walter Football and Yahoo Sports have Corral at No. 1 and Willis at No. 2. In a mock draft, USA TODAY Sports Draftwire has Willis as the first quarterback off the board and Corral second. In a Sports Illustrated mock draft, Corral is the second quarterback picked and Willis is the fourth.
History lesson of top QBS selected in NFL draft
Matchups like this one are rare. In the last 10 years, there are only seven instances where two quarterbacks who went on to be picked in the first round of the next NFL Draft faced off in a regularseason game. Of those seven, only one matchup came in non-conference play: a 2019 showdown between LSU’S Joe Burrow and Utah State’s Jordan Love.
Across the seven matchups, the quarterback picked earlier in the NFL Draft won four times.
Group of Five and FCS quarterbacks like Willis who go on to be picked in the first round have mixed track records against Power 5 competition.
In the last decade, FCS and Group of Five quarterbacks less than a year away from being first-round picks are 3-5 against Power 5 schools. They completed just 39.7% of their passes, threw 13 touchdowns with 13 interceptions and averaged 271 passing yards per game.
Not that games like this are necessarily a predictor of future success. Josh Allen, the star quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, played against Iowa and Oregon his final season at Wyoming. Wyoming lost both games and Allen went 32for-64 passing with 238 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions.
Memphis quarterback and Denver Broncos draft bust Paxton Lynch completed 61 of 78 pass attempts for 738 yards and five touchdowns with one interception in 2015 wins over Kansas and Ole Miss.
The win over Ole Miss was the last Power 5 victory for a non-power 5 firstround pick in his draft year.
Saturday’s outcome won’t determine whether Corral or Willis is picked higher in April’s NFL Draft. But given the novelty of the matchup, it’s a rare head-tohead glimpse at what top-level quarterback evaluation looks like.
Contact Nick Suss at 601-408-2674 or nsuss@gannett.com. Follow @nicksuss on Twitter.