How MSU, Arkansas look on offense, defense
STARKVILLE — When Zach Arnett flipped through the statistics for Arkansas’ rushing attack, the Mississippi State defensive coordinator was struck by the depth in that position. Of the players with at least 20 attempts this season, only one player doesn’t average at least 5 yards a carry.
The Bulldogs (5-3, 3-2 SEC) have done well against the run this year, boasting the fifth-best rush defense in the country, allowing 89.4 yards per game. But Arkansas (5-3, 1-3) has the fourth-best rushing offense, averaging 249 yards, creating a matchup in which a seemingly unstoppable force meets an immovable object.
“There’s a lot of sleepless nights right now on the defensive staff,” Arnett said, “because when a team can line up and impose their will on you that way, and march the ball down the field running the football, that’s not a very fun feeling as a defense. So we have quite the challenge ahead of us.”
That challenge will unfold at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on Saturday (3 p.m., SEC Network), putting Mississippi State’s success against the run to the test against an opponent that holds a run-first, run-often approach.
Mississippi State offense vs Arkansas defense
Against Kentucky, coach Mike Leach’s offense ran the ball more than ever before in his two years at Mississippi State. The success on the ground opened up the passing game, leading to quarterback Will Rogers’ 36 of 39 performance — a single-game SEC completion record for passers with at least 30 attempts.
The Bulldogs’ offense fired on all cylinders against Vanderbilt and Kentucky, particularly with the production from running backs Dillon Johnson and Jo’quavious Marks, who combined for 99 yards. All that’s on top of Rogers’ work through the air.
Mississippi State should see plenty of zone coverage from Arkansas. The stable of receiving options have found space against those zone looks recently, incrementally working the ball down the field rather than looking for chunk plays.
The Razorbacks have the 32nd-best defense in terms of yards allowed per game, although Pro Football Focus gives them just a 66.4 coverage grade.
“They’re a good collective unit, play as a team, they kind of mix some stuff in with their defense,” wide receiver Makai Polk said. “It’ll be fun to compete and go against them, but they really do a good job of mixing stuff up.”
Arkansas offense vs Mississippi State defense
When Arnett was reminded that his unit has one of the best run-stopping teams in the country — matching up well against Arkansas’ strong running game — the defensive coordinator was quick to qualify that ranking.
Arnett pointed to Mississippi State’s offense executing lengthy scoring drives, putting more emphasis on teams to throw against his defense if they need to move quickly to get back into a game.
Much of the Razorbacks’ success flows through quarterback K.J. Jefferson, a dual-threat option who can run it himself or hand the ball to a slew of capable running backs. Jefferson is also precise with the ball when throwing, tossing 15 touchdowns to three interceptions this year.
“He runs around you, over you, through you,” Arnett said.
Mississippi State did well against Mike Wright, Vanderbilt’s dual-threat quarterback. But Jefferson offers a different challenge, one that few teams have been able to contend against.
Special teams
Kicker Brandon Ruiz missed a 47yard field goal against Kentucky — leaving Ruiz 1-for-3 on kicks longer than 40 yards this season. The Bulldogs have also had issues on punts, allowing a 74yard return for a touchdown against the Wildcats. Tucker Day and Archer Trafford have rotated, but Day has punted the last two games, averaging just 37 yards per attempts, including a 16-yard kick in the fourth quarter. Various special teams shortcomings this season have loomed large. For Arkansas, kicker Cam Little has been consistent, making 11 of 14 field goal tries. Two of those
misses are from beyond 50 yards.
Prediction
Mississippi State 35, Arkansas 31: This game will rest on whether the Bulldogs can slow down the Razorbacks’ rushing attack. Mississippi State’s offense should move the ball proficiently again, and the running that worked in the red zone against Kentucky gives the Bulldogs another variable for defenses to consider.