Russia-ukraine war begins, Cold War returns
When the Tennessee World Affairs Council hosted Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak to speak at Nashville events six years ago, the relationship with the Russian Federation was thorny but cordial. The invasion and annexation of Crimea and Russian troublemaking in eastern Ukraine two years earlier had brought Western economic sanctions on Moscow and recriminations from its diplomats.
Kislyak laid blame on a “forceful coup against a president (pro-russian Viktor Yanukovych) that was democratically elected.” Kislyak, who had previously served as Moscow’s envoy to NATO, had strong words for the West over the alliance’s expansion and the special interests Russia had in Ukraine.
However, when asked if our countries were in a new Cold War, he offered, “I do not see any reason why a Cold War in the terms of what existed in the past can be resurrected because there are no ideological divides.”
It wasn’t for lack of ideology, however, that Ukraine was encircled and attacked by the Russian Army. It was naked aggression spurred by President Vladimir Putin’s grandiose vision of a new Russian Empire, one that included both its false historic claim to Ukraine and a rollback of the post-cold War NATO expansion in Eastern Europe.
Putin is threatened by expanded democracy
Putin signaled what was to come, last summer with a lengthy article, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.”
As recently as February 21st he pressed his view, "Ukraine never had a tradition of genuine statehood." Beyond his misreading of NATO’S defensive orientation, we believe Putin’s authoritarian regime was threatened by a democratic, West-looking Ukraine. He unabashedly warned, “Russia has every right to take retaliatory measures to ensure its own security; that is exactly what we will do."
In the World Affairs Council’s “Election 2020” citizen primer on global affairs, Russia analyst Dr. Svetlana Savranskya, warned of Russia’s “exaggerated sense of threat,” and that Moscow was unduly worried about, “adversaries pushing against the Russian borders.”
So, when Putin declared “special military operations” against Ukraine overnight on Feb. 24, it should have been no surprise to informed Americans that Russia would strike. In fact, conversations in recent weeks with former U.S. Ambassador to Germany John Kornblum at the Council’s virtual events put the threat in context and explained the diplomatic lanes that Washington and our allies were following.
We were warned.
The U.S. will feel the ripple effects of war in Europe
Now that the fires have been lighted in Europe our nation faces new challenges. There are the defense and security needs inherent with America’s NATO obligations and the humanitarian, economic, political and military interests in maintaining global peace and stability.
There is the worldwide fallout of war in Europe and great power conflict: surging oil and commodity prices and sell offs in global markets. Those effects are likely to ripple through the American economy in coming weeks and months.
Then there are the dangers posed by heightened tensions along NATO borders, where American troops are deploying, and there’s potential for miscalculation, not to mention Russian incursions into “claimed” states like the Baltics. The winds of war often ignore lines on a map.
At home we will likely see Russian cyber-attacks on American institutions and infrastructure in response to U.S. and alliance measures. If the years of experts warning were not enough fof an alert, there have been the well-documented attacks on American elections and infrastructure like the shutdown of the Colonial oil and jet fuel pipeline in the Southeast last year. Expect more.
Are we ready to deal with the fallout of war in Europe? Do we know enough about the situation and prospects? If past is prologue, we come up short. A National Geographic/roper survey in 2006 showed 63% of young people, the most recent graduates of our educational system, could not find Iraq on a map, years after U.S. troops were engaged in combat there. It would be surprising to find that Ukraine and great power conflict were much better understood.
The advent of war in Ukraine has brought a flood of news and information that can serve to illuminate our community about the background, context and challenges of what we see as a new Cold War. What incentive?
We can certainly trust Putin’s words, “Whoever tries to hinder us, or threaten our country or our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences that you have never faced in your history. I hope that I will be heard.”
So, we ask that you take advantage of the spread of knowledge about what’s behind this crisis and other global challenges, either through the World Affairs Council’s work or other trustworthy media. We’re mindful of the paraphrased dictum of Ukrainian-russian revolutionary Leon Trotsky, “You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.”
Jim Shepherd is chairman of the Board of the Tennessee World Affairs Council, a nonpartisan, educational membership association that works to inform the community about global affairs (TNWAC.ORG). He retired as president of Carlex, an international automotive glass supplier.
Karl F. Dean is vice chairman of the Board of the Tennessee World Affairs Council. He served as Mayor of Nashville-davidson County from 2007-2013.