A look at Manning’s shocking NIL valuation

Arch Manning wasn't in the center of college football last month, he was the center.

That's because Manning, a five-star quarterback and the No. 1 player in the Class of 2023, committed to Texas on June 23. The Isidore Newman star and nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning chose the Longhorns over Georgia, Alabama and a host of others.

The attention has brought the same speculation that's attached to every high-profile college recruit — What are they worth in Name, Image and Likeness? — but now the conversation has shifted to the high school level.

The Louisiana High School Athletic Association in April announced that it would allow its athletes to profit off of NIL, partnering with the company Eckker Sports to help provide "educational services and resources" to the athletes.

Whether Manning will take advantage of the new ruling is unknown, given his unique family circle and public unwillingness to dive into the world of NIL, at least for now. But none of that has stopped On3 Sports from trying to estimate the wealth of the most famous high school football player in the country.

Through its algorithm designed by spiny.ai, which weighs a variety of factors into three subgroups which include an athlete's social media presence, performance on the field and involvement with existing endorsements and collectives, On3's valuation pegs Manning as worth $3.4 million in NIL. Prior to his commitment to Texas, the site valued him at $3.1 million.

"Arch is a valuable commodity no matter where he would have gone," On3 Sports Senior Editor Jeremy Crabtree said.

On3's estimation is not a projection but rather a snapshot of what Manning is worth now. It's an important distinction to make given that his ceiling as a NIL figure is nowhere near its potential.

Despite the new law, Manning has yet to do any NIL deals. He hasn't made any plans to team up with either of his uncles for an NIL deal. But if he were to do so, On3 Sports College Business Sports reporter Pete Nakos suggests it could elevate his NIL value significantly.

"Could you imagine a Pepsi advertisement with like Peyton, Arch and Eli? That would make (Arch) millions of dollars. I'm sure it would be a huge hit," Nakos said. "That idea of what he could do with his uncles or his grandfather is really fascinating."

Manning also hasn't been active on social media, with just one tweet sent and one picture posted to Instagram — both announcing his commitment to

Texas. And last year, he only had a private Instagram and no Twitter account.

"It's interesting, people love to follow him," Nakos said. "It's almost like his social media accounts are almost not even necessary for him to have a strong valuation just because of how much people care about what he does."

Thus far, Manning's NIL strategy has been the opposite of Bronny James.

James is the son of L.A. Lakers superstar Lebron James and, like Manning, is still in high school.

Bronny has already done multiple NIL deals — including his own underwear collection — and is extremely active on social media. It all has allowed him to become the highest valued athlete on On3's site at $6.3 million.

But Manning's lack of activity, whether it be on social media or in the NIL space, doesn't rule out the chance of him becoming as high or a higher-valued athlete as James, even if he hasn't tried to capitalize on his potential wealth as much as the son of the fourtime NBA champion.

"When Arch speaks it might mean more just because he hasn't done much on social media," Crabtree said. "It's a little counterintuitive so to speak because you see a lot of student-athletes across the spectrum that do tweet a lot, that post a lot about their NIL deals and do promotions and branded content and things like that. But I think this just might mean more with Arch because it might just carry a little bit more weight because of that Manning last name."

The school Manning was going to commit to was never going to significantly affect his NIL worth, for better or worse. Unlike the vast majority of college athletes, his last name is a brand of its own.

But by committing to Texas, Manning is going to a school that's done more than its fair share to promote its athletes' brands. Last week, the Austinamerican Statesman reported that Texas already has earned its athletes $2 million in NIL.

Longhorn football players reportedly earned nearly $900,000 among 94 NIL deals. Star quarterback Quinn Ewers received an Aston Martin in a NIL agreement, and running back Bijan Robinson got a Lamborghini.

"Texas is a tremendous market for (Manning) and a great athletic department," Crabtree said.

Without even trying, Manning is already worth millions of dollars. With his commitment to Texas already out of the way, the only question that remains is how he will turn that acclaim and baseline of wealth into something more — whether in college or at the high school level.

"His family is also pretty smart to know when they can make a buck," Nakos said.