Predicting who would win a 12-team playoff
Alabama football did the rest of the playoff field a favor when it beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. With the Bulldogs relegated to the Orange Bowl, it’s a fair fight among the four playoff teams competing for the national championship.
Georgia and Florida State are stuck playing in a New Year’s Six game that should allow the victor to declare, “We’re No. 3! We’re No. 3!”
Doesn’t have the same ring to it, does it?
If the 12-team playoff were here today, those two teams would be in the field, along with six other also-rans.
Here’s what the 12-team field would look like, plus my round-by-round picks for how this would unfold.
First round No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Missouri
Matchups like these have me excited for the expanded playoff. With Oregon’s Bo Nix slinging it and Missouri’s Cody Schrader running wild, this could become a shootout resembling the Tigers’ midseason loss to LSU. The home team enjoys a critical advantage in these firstround games. PICK: Oregon 41, Missouri 38
No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 12 Liberty
Yes, Jordan Travis is injured, but Liberty hasn’t faced a defense like FSU’S, which muscled the Seminoles past Florida and Louisville. Liberty went undefeated against a schedule that featured no Power Five opponents. FSU could play a water boy at quarterback, and the Flames still would be overmatched: Florida State 27, Liberty 7
No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Penn State
Matchups like these are among the
12-team playoff ’s flaws. These teams played two months ago. I don’t need a rematch to know Ohio State is superior. I suspect the playoff committee would use their crystal balls to adjust seeding to prevent rematches like this. As it stands, though, this would be a firstround matchup, and we know Penn State would struggle to score. PICK: Ohio State 20, Penn State 12
No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 11 Ole Miss
Speaking of rematches we don’t need a repeat of … Georgia didn’t just beat Ole Miss in Athens last month. The Bulldogs pulverized them. Lane Kiffin’s assessment of the mismatch: “We don’t deserve to be in the (four-team) playoffs. We’ve got to recruit at a higher level.” I agree, and the rosters haven’t changed since then, meaning this remains a recipe for a blowout. PICK: Georgia 45, Ole Miss 14
Quarterfinals No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 8 Oregon
My eyes tell me Michigan ranks among the nation’s four best teams, but I can’t shake that the Wolverines got bounced in their first playoff game in each of the past two seasons. Quarterback J.J. Mccarthy hasn’t reached 150 yards passing in any of Michigan’s past
four games. I’ll trust the more balanced team with the Heisman Trophy finalist playing quarterback. PICK: Oregon 24, Michigan 21
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 5 Florida State
In a 12-team playoff, we wouldn’t need the committee’s crystal ball to determine which of these teams is better. If FSU had Travis available, then I think the Seminoles are the more complete team. Without him, Alabama claims the advantage. Jalen Milroe’s transformation from September liability to December asset makes the difference. PICK: Alabama 24, Florida State 14
No. 2 Washington vs. No. 7 Ohio State
I liked everything about OSU this season except its quarterback play. A clutch quarterback is required to win playoff games like this one. Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. is Mr. Cool Customer. The Huskies are battle-tested. They keep finding a way to win. Ryan Day finds ways to lose big games. PICK: Washington 27, Ohio State 24
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 6 Georgia
I’m calling this the de facto national championship game. When these teams perform at their best, I think they’re the nation’s top two teams. Texas is excellent on the lines of scrimmage, with perimeter weapons and a good quarterback. Georgia should be healthier by this quarterfinal than it was in the SEC Championship, but I can’t ignore how well Quinn Ewers is playing. PICK: Texas 28, Georgia 27
Semifinals No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 8 Oregon
Nix simply does not get sacked, and neutralizing Alabama’s pass rush would give the Ducks a chance. But, I value Alabama’s secondary, too, and I question whether Oregon could mount the necessary run game to attack Alabama’s vulnerability. I trust the Tide more in close games. PICK: Alabama 33, Oregon 26
No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas
Look here, a 12-team playoff producing the same semifinal that we’ll see on Jan. 1. If you haven’t figured it out yet, I think Texas possesses a very, very high ceiling. The Longhorns’ pass defense is their soft spot, so Penix would need to deliver, but I respect Texas’ scale-tilting dominance on the lines of scrimmage. PICK: Texas 34, Washington 24
Championship No. 3 Texas vs. No. 4 Alabama
Can you hear Longhorns fans chanting “S-E-C! S-E-C!” Welcome, a year early, to a program that should fit into this haughty conference just fine. Texas’ Week 2 win in Tuscaloosa was no fluke. The Longhorns’ victory felt decisive. Alabama improved after that game, but I trust the Longhorns as the more wellrounded team, although I’ll adjust the rematch to a closer margin to reflect that Milroe’s growth. Alabama will enter the 2024 season as a favorite to dethrone the Longhorns. Until then … PICK: Texas 34, Alabama 31
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s SEC Columnist. Email him at Btoppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.