What does El Niño mean for Kentucky weather?

Climate predictions for El Niño show a strong influence on winter weather, and for Kentuckians, that likely means a slightly warmer holiday season than normal.

El Niño, a climate pattern that affects weather events, is expected to continue for the Northern Hemisphere after the Climate Prediction Center issued an advisory for this winter. During El Niño, warming of the ocean’s surface occurs, and rainfall over the open Pacific increases.

Here’s how El Niño could affect Kentucky and surrounding areas.

How strong will El Niño be this winter?

The chances of a strong El Niño have increased to 71% as of September, according to the prediction center.

“However, a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself,” according to the weather service.

Mark Jarvis, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, doesn’t anticipate that the current El Niño cycle will last that long. He said Kentuckians can expect a “back end” winter when models peak around December and start to fall off during late winter into spring.

How could El Niño affect Kentucky?

During an El Niño cycle, weather in Kentucky typically gets slightly warmer and drier than normal, said Jarvis.

Kentuckians must be asking themselves about the snow by now, and Jarvis said there isn’t a significant difference between temperatures during El Niño and non-ElNiño events. In general, though, precipitation would be statistically less than normal.

That doesn’t mean it will just be warm and dry, Jarvis said. Most precipitation is likely to occur during later months such as January and February — when Kentucky gets most of its snow during a normal winter anyway.

How long does El Niño last?

Both El Niño and La Niña, the opposite effect of El Niño, can last between nine and 12 months, although, episodes can last for years, the ocean service said. Neither phenomenon occurs on a regular schedule, though El Niño occurs more frequently in general.

JOSEPH COOKE/THE COURIER-JOURNAL Layla Claxton, 7, runs near water at the Riverview Park splash pad in Louisville on July 20, 2022.