What happens if Roe v. Wade is overturned? In Pa., the answer depends on the November governor’s race.
HARRISBURG — The outcome of the Pennsylvania governor’s race could determine the future of legal abortion access in the state, which is uncertain following the leak of a draft U.S. Supreme Court opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade.
Such a decision would leave how, where, and why someone could get a legal abortion, if at all, up to each state’s legislature and governor. All nine of the Republican gubernatorial candidates in Pennsylvania support additional abortion restrictions, and at least five would seek a complete ban with no exceptions.
Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, a former Planned Parenthood clinic escort who is statutorily unable to seek another term, has blocked efforts by the GOP-controlled legislature to further curtail abortion access during his seven years in office. Republicans
will likely maintain control of both the state House and Senate this November, raising the stakes in an already critical governor’s race.
According to a draft opinion circulated within the court and reported by Politico Monday night, the U.S. Supreme Court has already voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, a landmark court decision that has protected the right to abortion for almost 50 years. Chief Justice John Roberts on Tuesday confirmed the draft’s authenticity but said it was not final.
“We’ve gotten to this point because of a wellorganized and continuously mobilized pro-life movement that has spent the last half-century working to this goal,” said Lehigh University sociologist Ziad Munson, who has written about abortion politics.
Opponents of abortion celebrated the leaked opinion with a mix of hope for the future, but also some reservations as to what the court’s final decision will be.
Michael Ciccocioppo, executive director of the Pennsylvania ProLife Federation, said in an email that the group “will let the Supreme Court speak for itself and wait for the Court’s official opinion,” and declined to comment “on hypothetical questions in this matter.”
For now, at least, the precedent set in Roe v. Wade and affirmed in Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pennsylvania v. Casey will remain in place.
“Let’s be clear: Abortion is still legal,” Planned Parenthood Southeastern Pennsylvania President and CEO Dayle Steinberg said.
Under state law, abortion is legal up to 24 weeks into a pregnancy, with later exceptions made for extraordinary circumstances like the health of the person giving birth.
The Abortion Control Act, a 1982 law that regulates abortion in Pennsylvania, already includes significant restrictions. People seeking abortions are required to wait for 24 hours after receiving mandatory counseling, and minors cannot receive abortions without parental consent.
It is also the only law regulating a medical procedure written into the state criminal code, said Sue Frietsche, founder and director of the Western Pennsylvania office of the Women’s Law Project. The act carries heavy criminal and civil penalties for doctors and nurses who violate it.
“It’s a manifestation of abortion stigma,” she said. “The purpose of our legislature in putting what is really the regulation of health care into the crimes code is to cast a cloud of unsavory suspicion over the whole area.”
The state of access, and what the future could bring
Should the court strike Roe down, nothing would immediately change for Pennsylvanians.
In the short term, abortion providers expect Pennsylvania to become a sanctuary for people from states where access would end if Roe were overturned, said Melissa Reed, president and CEO of Planned Parenthood Keystone.
Without Roe, Reed said she expects an additional 8,500 patients to arrive annually from other states on top of the 7,600 abortion patients Planned Parenthood Keystone serves each year.
“I think it’s important that people know that the consequences of this are going to be truly dangerous and unprecedented,” Reed said.
But depending on who succeeds Wolf as governor, the situation could change rapidly for Pennsylvania residents.
At least five of the nine GOP candidates for governor — Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale, conservative strategist Charlie Gerow, state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R., Franklin), former Delaware County Council Member Dave White, and Poconos surgeon Nche Zama — have said they support abortion bans without exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the parent.
At a debate in late April, Mastriano, who has consistently appeared at or near the top of polls, called legal abortion “a national catastrophe,” before promising to “move with alacrity” on a six-week abortion ban.