Autonomy

Self-driving vehicles will be a commonplace feature within the next decade, report predicts

Self-driving vehicles will go froma developing concept to a commonplace feature within the next decade, a report on emerging technologies predicts.

Gartner Inc., an information technology research and advisory company based in Stamford, issued the prediction in its "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies" report for 2015. This report measures various technologies along a chronological scale of expectations and implementation.

The Hype Cycle starts with the innovation of a new technology, with expectations increasing to a "peak of inflated expectations." These expectations plummet into a "trough of disillusionment" as consumers realize a technology won't be able to reach its anticipated level, but rise slowly through a "slope of enlightenment" as the technology is developed. The technology becomes commonplace at a stage Gartner Inc. calls the "plateau of productivity."

The report puts autonomous vehicles at the top of the peak of inflated expectations, moving the technology forward from its former pre-peak status. Autonomous field vehicles were placed farther along in the cycle, coming out of the trough of disillusionment and just shy of the slope of enlightenment. Cadie Thompson, writing for Tech Insider, describes this kind of technology as unmanned ground, air, and aquatic vehicles designed to collect data in remote locations.

Each technology is given an estimate of when it will reach the plateau stage. These predictions include fewer than two years, two to five years, and five to 10 years. There can also be a prediction that a technology will become obsolete before its plateau stage is reached.

Gartner Inc. estimates that autonomous vehicles will reach the plateau stage in five to 10 years. It predicts that autonomous field vehicles will reach this point in two to five years.

Another study released earlier this year offered a similar prediction. The audit, tax, and advisory services firm KPMG issued a report on the potential effect of autonomous vehicles on the auto insurance industry. KPMG suggested that vehicles with partial driver substitution technology will be introduced in 2017, with fully autonomous vehicles becoming more common in 2020. The report also predicts that all new vehicles will have autonomous capabilities by 2025, and that older vehicles will be able to have autonomous retrofits by this point.

Many new vehicles include features designed to improve a vehicle's safety and performance by supplementing the driver's actions. These include front collision warning systems that can automatically apply the brakes as well as automated parking technology.

Richard Read, writing for the automotive site The Car Connection, says autonomous vehicles have the potential tomake traffic proceed more efficiently and improve safety on the roads. However, he says there has also been some temerity among drivers who worry about howwell a self-driving vehicle would be able to perform.

A recent survey of 505 drivers by Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle of the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute found that many of the respondents were reluctant to use autonomous vehicles. A total of 43.8 percent said they did not want their vehicle to have any self-driving capability, while 40.6 percent said they would prefer their vehicle to be only partially autonomous. Only 15.6 percent favored a fully autonomous vehicle.