Voters have turned against Kavanaugh

J udge Brett Kavanaugh surely is in a class by himself, according to the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll:

“More American voters now oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination than support it after he was accused of committing sexual assault while he was in high school, with opposition increasing 9 points since last month . . . . In the poll, which was conducted Sunday (when the accusation from Christine Blasey Ford was first made public) through Wednesday, 38 percent of voters say they oppose Kavanaugh’s nomination to serve on the nation’s highest court, including 27 percent who ‘strongly’ oppose him.”

No Supreme Court nominee has gone over this poorly with the voters, NBC’s report noted: “This is the first time in the NBC/WSJ poll — dating back to John Roberts’ nomination in 2005 — that a Supreme Court nominee has been underwater on this confirmation question. (Harriet Miers, whose nomination was ultimately withdrawn, was above water at 27 percent support, 21 percent oppose in the October 2005 survey).”

For senators looking over their shoulder at the midterm voters, it seems as if voting against Kavanaugh has its advantages. “The increased opposition to Kavanaugh has come, in particular, from women over 50 (who were +3 on Kavanaugh’s confirmation in August and are -7 now) suburban women (-6 in August and -11 now), independents (who were +15 in August and -16 now) and seniors (+9 in August to -10 now).”

Republicans still back Kavanaugh overwhelmingly (73 percent), but everyone else is quite negative (independents oppose him 37 to 21 percent; Democrats oppose him 66 to 8 percent). That gives red-state Democrats some breathing room to oppose Kavanaugh and raises the stakes for Republicans running in competitive districts, especially those with plenty of the voters who have shifted most dramatically against Kavanaugh (e.g., suburban women).

Republican senators find themselves in a tough spot. If they ridicule or dismiss Ford, many voters outside the hardcore GOP base will be outraged. If she comes across as sincere and the senators vote for Kavanaugh anyway, the backlash from independents, women and Democrats may be fierce. However, if the senators abandon Kavanaugh, the already depressed GOP base may not show up in November. The best they can do is keep their heads down, ask Ford no questions if she appears and pray Kavanaugh withdraws on his own.

One can understand then why Republicans want to rush this through. The biggest concern is that more evidence comes out before the vote, but that’s not the only concern. The longer Kavanaugh sticks around, the less voters approve, giving red-state Democrats cover to vote against him and making it that much harder for moderate Republicans to stick with him.

Interestingly, the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska, Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s home state, came out against the nomination. They cited protection of the Affordable Care Act, the concern Sen. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii, raised about native peoples and, in stinging terms, Ford’s allegations.

“We believe a thorough review of past allegations against Mr. Kavanaugh is needed before a confirmation vote takes place. Violence against women in Alaska is an epidemic,” they wrote. “We do not condone placing someone into one of our nation’s highest positions of power while so many key questions remain unanswered.”

Even in a conservative state such as Alaska, that’s a remarkable signal that voting to confirm Kavanaugh can be perilous.