Economy is not so great for many Americans
The economy should be a bright spot as we head into a new decade. There is good news, to be sure. Unemployment is down to 3.5%, while the stock market is near record highs. Yet, despite the good top-line numbers, there is great anxiety about the direction of the country. This may be another instance of partisan tribalism. (Republicans think the economy is the best ever; Democrats see us as being on the brink of a recession.) However, something else may be at play.
President Barack Obama’s former “car czar,” Steven Rattner, reminds us in a New York Times op-ed that President Donald Trump has “the distinction of being the first president in modern history to have never achieved an approval rating above 50 percent in a Gallup poll. That’s particularly remarkable given the reasonably strong performance of the American economy.” Part of the explanation might be that the economy is not strong for everyone, and certainly not for critical groups of voters.
As Trump struggles to undo the damage from his own trade war, consumers are still paying the price. (Per Rattner: “(Prices) of tariff-related goods rose by 3 percent, while the prices of other goods (excluding food and energy) have been unchanged.” Moreover, rather than revive manufacturing, Trump has helped push it into a recession. That, in turn, “has dented business confidence and for a time seemed likely to drag down the broader economy. While those fears have ebbed, the number of factory jobs is barely growing and has contracted in some of the key 2020 swing states. Through November, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania had lost manufacturing jobs this year.”
Rattner notes that investment (which was supposed to rise as a result of Trump’s tax cuts) has grown more slowly under Trump than it did under Obama after the recession ended. Meanwhile, job growth, a constant subject of Trump boasts, is slower than it was under Obama: “(Average) monthly job growth during Mr. Trump’s 34 months in office (193,000) was less than the 227,000 jobs added monthly during the last 34 months of Mr. Obama’s tenure . ... Job growth was materially slower this year in Ohio and Michigan than it was nationally, and in three other (swing states) Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota the unemployment rate also rose.”
Worst of all, the deficit has exploded, thanks to Trump’s tax cuts and the two budget deals he signed into law this year that add on federal spending. Rattner explains: “All told, measures passed under Mr. Trump’s watch caused the annual deficit to more than double; it will exceed $1 trillion in the current fiscal year.”
In sum, there is much to Democrats’ claim that the economy is doing great for the rich, for big corporations, for stock investors and for those not in manufacturing, but with health care, college and housing prices spiking in many regions, there are millions of Americans who feel squeezed. It is these Americans who might determine the outcome of the 2020 election.