Political prophet speaks: Trump will win it again
Once again, the national forecasters are looking at the wrong numbers. I looked at the right ones and they point to Donald John Trump staying in the White House.
“Magna rei publicae propheta” — “the great prophet of the state” for those who don’t know Latin — is an extremely rare genetic mutation that allows those blessed with this divergent genome to accurately predict the outcome of political elections.
I possess this rare anomaly. This hereditary variation allows me to objectively prognosticate elections with unimaginable accuracy. Some folks might consider the condition a gift; I have come to look at it as a burden. With each passing election prediction, the pressure to remain undefeated grows.
The very first official public election prediction I ever made was in late October 2006. Sensing the anti-Bush, anti-Iraq war sentiment, I couldn’t shake the feeling that my friend Rob Simmons was going to get upended in his re-election-bid for Congress. I distinctively recall forecasting a Democratic win by the narrowest of margins. And, after fielding irate phone calls from Simmons’s supporters for days, and after an extensive recount, Joe Courtney, by just 91 votes, was declared the winner and has held that seat with little opposition since.
Other races that I prophesied correctly include, Barack Obama 2008 and 2012, Dannel P. Malloy both times, New London Mayor Daryl Finizio, Governor Ned Lamont — and Trump in 2016. My official prediction record over this 14-year stretch is 23-0 — and it could be even more impressive, but I refused to pad my stats with easy tomato-can electoral contests.
Predicting each race requires a slightly different process with hundreds of variables being considered before coming to a conclusion. State and local races are less about polls and numbers (since often they don’t exist) and more about social media activity, name recognition, groundgame, and candidate relatability and likeability. On the national scene, it’s all about voter enthusiasm and simple mathematics. The ability to extrapolate exactly what poll numbers represent is vital to forecasting elections precisely. I’ve pored over dozens of polls and run countless simulations before finally coming up with my official prediction for the 2020 presidential election.
Keeping in mind that almost every recognized poll has Biden winning on Nov. 3 — comfortably — I dug deep and found a couple of tidbits the mainstream media missed.
A Gallup poll released a few weeks ago calculated a whopping 56% of Americans believe they’re better off today than four years ago. This poll is important because, in 2012, President Barack Obama’s number sat at 45%, in 2004, President George W. Bush hovered around 47%, and even before President Reagan won re-election in a 49-state landslide in 1984, that year 44% of Americans said they were better off than they were four years earlier.
No incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.
The biggest issue in the campaign is COVID-19. There have been 11 incumbents to face a pandemic during re-election and, since 1820, the incumbent is 11-0 . There is a huge advantage for sitting presidents with 78% winning re-election. Since 1912, elected incumbents are 11-3 when seeking a second term.
Meanwhile, 59% of all likely voters, including 49% of Democrats, think Biden is unlikely to finish a four-year term in the White House.
And 350,665 is the total Amish population in this country, with a bulk of them residing in key states: 81,500 in Pennsylvania; 78,280 in Ohio: 22,235 in Wisconsin; and 16,525 in Michigan.
So, what does it all mean? First, it doesn’t require an advanced degree in geometry, or political science for that matter, to surmise the former vice president will win California, New York, and all six New England States. He will also comfortably secure Washington state and Oregon along with Colorado and New Mexico. Biden will score in D.C., Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Virginia, Nevada, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
As for Trump, in addition to winning all the states he is favored to win, the president will sweep the battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Texas, and Arizona.
That leaves the much-coveted toss-up state of Pennsylvania holding the White House key.
The most recent aggregate poll numbers reveal Biden’s once-formidable 9-point July advantage has shrunk all the way down to well within the margin of error. In 2016, this state went to Trump by slightly less than 45,000 votes and in 2020 it will be even closer. But, ultimately, Trump will take this state and, in the process, grab the necessary electoral college votes for a victory.
Trump 279, Biden 259.