Biden sends every signal he’s running again
Washington — President Joe Biden’s advisers have been studying a spring 2023 reelection announcement that would echo the timetable of former President Barack Obama. They have flooded 2024 battleground states with millions of dollars to build up Democratic operations in advance of the next presidential campaign.
And under the Biden team’s leadership, the Democratic National Committee has decided against preparing a debate schedule for a contested nomination fight.
The goal of his advisers is to send every possible message that Biden, 79, is ready, able and determined to carry the party banner into another presidential election, especially if the opponent is his nemesis, Donald Trump, 76.
With Biden’s approval ratings continuing to slide and the odds of a recession next year rising, the planning is in part an effort, though not entirely successful, to dampen broad concern in the party about his ability to mount a conventional campaign due to his age and energy level.
“If Trump is going to run, there is no question Biden is running, and he would probably run regardless,” said Greg Schultz, who worked as the first Biden campaign manager during the 2020 primary race.
Former Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut, a close Biden ally and friend, said there is no reason to think the president will not run again. “The one thing I guarantee you is he is no quitter,” Dodd said. “There is always some speculation in every administration, but from my conversations, he is a guy who is running again.”
In public and private, Biden himself has emphasized that he is running, effectively shutting down any discussion of the topic between the president and his close advisers, according to interviews with more than a dozen Democrats close to the White House, most of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.
Biden remains consumed by inflation, the war in Ukraine and the other daily crises that arrive at his desk, and even as aides have had to publicly and repeatedly reiterate that he is running in 2024, there are no plans to expedite the official launch of a reelection campaign, to the frustration of some Democrats trying to finalize their own plans.
Several prominent Democrats are maneuvering in case Biden changes his mind as donors, lawmakers and strategists fret about his age and ability to run a grueling campaign. If reelected, Biden would be 86 by the end of his second term.
The discussions over the political future of Bide come at a time of deep concern inside the Democratic Party about its ability to define its Republican opponents and assuage voter anxieties about high prices and rising crime. For months, there has been broad concern about the White House struggling to communicate a clear message as his approval ratings continue to be low.
Republicans assail Biden and Democrats daily for failing to curb increasing prices, a surge in crime and an influx of migrants at the southern border, while hammering at social issues related to racial justice, school curriculums and transgender rights.
The White House, in contrast, has yet to put forward a clear argument for why voters should choose Democrats over Republicans in the fall, many party strategists said, alternating between attacks on corporate greed and denunciations of “Ultra MAGA” Republicans.
There is also widespread concern in the party about the ability of Biden to perform vigorously in another election, especially after the last campaign was largely conducted virtually amid the coronavirus pandemic. While Biden can claim that he has already shown he can beat Trump, if the former president opts not to run, some Democratic operatives said Biden will face pressure to step aside.
“I think people watch him with a clenched jaw and a lot of tension in their body, hoping he doesn’t make a mistake at any moment,” said a senior Democratic election strategist who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive matters. “It is obviously hard to do that as president, and it is really hard to do that as president running for reelection.” Asked whether it would be good for Democrats if Biden ran again, the person said, “I think it is a coin flip.”
Biden’s reelection plans do not entirely hinge on what Trump does, but aides and allies agree the president would almost certainly not change his mind about running again if Trump is the Republican nominee and he is healthy enough for a campaign, a fact Biden has acknowledged. Biden considers his defeat of Trump, whom he sees as disrupter of American democratic traditions, central to his legacy.
“Why would I not run against Donald Trump if he were the nominee?” he told ABC News in December. “That’d increase the prospect of running.” In March, Biden seemed to relish the prospect of a rematch. “The next election, I’d be very fortunate if I had that same man running against me,” he said at a news conference in Brussels.
Biden’s supporters argue that he has shown political acumen and governing skill in recent years, and that there is no evidence anyone else in the party would do better.
“He has beaten this guy Trump once, and I think he beats him again if Trump is a candidate,” Dodd said. “A lot of the problems he faces has nothing to do with his doing. Who would have anticipated Ukraine? He has handled that with a great deal of sophistication.”
Dodd spent last week with the president in Los Angeles at the Summit of the Americas, and praised Biden’s diplomatic skills and grasp of the thorny issues on the agenda. “We had a private luncheon with all the heads of state,” Dodd said. “Everyone got to ask questions. He was terrific. We forget how good he can be and how good he really is in those settings.”