Chaos everywhere you look
There was one hopeful sign in a week that showed the extent to which the federal government is headed toward a historic crisis of gridlock and malfunction.
That came when the justices of the Supreme Court indicated they will likely reject the efforts of Colorado and Maine officials to remove Donald Trump from their states’ presidential ballots.
Their questions made clear their decision will hinge on such legalities as whether states have the power to judge the qualifications of candidates for national office — not whether Trump led an insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021. At the same time, they cannot help being aware of the potential for political mayhem if they ratify what Colorado and Maine did — allowing similar steps by other states against other candidates.
Still, we may be headed for unprecedented chaos as both houses of Congress — and both likely presidential nominees — continue to raise doubts, in different ways, of their inability to meet the responsibilities of governing.
The House
Its new Republican leaders have been increasingly unable to govern, climaxing with last week’s failure to pass an Israel aid bill and impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on the first try.
In his first 100 days, Speaker Mike Johnson has shown a distressing inability to manage his small GOP majority, something the last Democratic speaker, Nancy Pelosi, showed can be done.
While Tuesday’s second try impeached Mayorkas, upcoming budget votes — and Tuesday’s Democratic special election victory — will see more cliffhangers with unpredictable results, further jeopardizing GOP prospects for keeping House control.
The Senate
Until recently, its Republicans have shown the responsibility lacking in their House colleagues. But last week, they yielded to the political pressures from Trump and his MAGA followers.
They rejected a far-ranging border compromise that they had demanded as a price for aiding Israel and Ukraine and which their designee, Oklahoma Sen. James Lankford, spent four months negotiating with Senate Democrats and the White House.
Later, however, they helped pass a separate measure aiding Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, but it faces an uncertain fate in the House.
The presidency
For months, voters have told pollsters they don’t want a rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden. Last week, both continued their steps toward securing their parties’ nominations — and ensuring that rematch.
At the same time, a federal appeals court’s verdict and a special counsel’s report raised doubts about whether either man is fit to lead the country for the next four years.
The U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington issued a unanimous decision that a president does not enjoy absolute immunity from criminal prosecution. It increased the likelihood that Trump will go on trial this year for his role in the insurrection that nearly kept Congress from certifying Biden’s 2020 victory.
That could result in one of the major presidential nominees not only facing an unprecedented array of 91 criminal indictments but becoming a convicted felon before the nation votes next November.
At the same time, Trump’s allies are already laying the basis in several states to do what he did in 2020: challenge any result that does not go in his favor.
Meanwhile, Biden’s reaction to the special counsel’s report on his mishandling of classified documents showed why so many Americans — including his supporters — say they are concerned about his age.
The report itself said Biden “willfully retained and disclosed classified documents” after he left the vice presidency — mostly to a ghost writer for his biography — but concluded that, unlike Trump, he cooperated with the investigation.
But it provoked an angry response from Biden by saying he couldn’t recall when his son died or his vice presidential term ended and describing him as “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”
“I’m an elderly man, and I know what the hell I’m doing,” Biden told a hastily called White House news conference.
He then underscored those doubts by confusing the presidents of Mexico and Egypt, the third time recently he confused leaders of foreign countries. The session provoked a fusillade of stories questioning his competence.
If you think the current situation is troublesome, just look down the road. Barring an unexpected decision to withdraw, either Biden or Trump will win.
If Biden wins, he’ll likely face a Republican Senate — probably under a more aggressive GOP leader than Mitch McConnell — and a very closely divided House. More acrimonious gridlock seems inevitable.
The signs of aging evident in his first term — a faulty memory, a stiff gait and sometimes confused responses — will likely increase, adding to problems he’ll face in what could be a troubled second term.
If Trump wins, he’ll court constant controversy — and court challenges. He vows to make the federal government more subject to the presidential will, likely forcing his Justice Department to drop the criminal charges he faces — including possible convictions.
He has threatened to prosecute Biden, abandon the increasingly popular Affordable Care Act, invoke massive, growth-threatening tariffs against China, and stop helping Ukraine. Last weekend, he stirred a furor in Europe by encouraging the Russians “to do whatever they hell they want” to NATO countries behind in their dues.
Either outcome bodes poorly for having an effective federal government. Biden or Trump could have eased some current concerns by giving way to younger, more suitable nominees. But time is probably past for either of these stubborn old men to recognize the reality of what lies ahead.