EBOLA TARGETS WILL BE MISSED
Failures in Sierra Leona, Liberia suggest outbreak will spread further
Only Guinea is likely to meet a Monday deadline for affected West Africa countries in their battle to control Ebola. »
Two months ago, the World Health Organization launched an ambitious plan to stop the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, aiming to isolate 70 percent of the sick and safely bury 70 percent of the victims in the three hardest-hit countries— Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone— by Dec. 1.
Only Guinea is on track to meet the Dec. 1 goal, according to an update from WHO.
With the target date looming Monday, it looks almost certain WHO’s goals will be missed, marking another failure in attempts to slow the biggest-ever outbreak of the deadly disease.
WHO’s Dr. Bruce Aylward had acknowledged in October that to reach the Dec. 1 goal would be “really pushing the system hard.”
“If we don’t do it in 60 days and we take 90 days: No. 1, a lot more people will die that shouldn’t; and No. 2, we will need that much more capacity on the ground to be able to manage the caseload,” said Aylward, who is directing WHO’s Ebola response.
In recent weeks, there have been some successes in curbing Ebola. Cases seem to be declining or stabilizing in Liberia and Guinea. But the area around Sierra Leone’s capital and a district in the country’s north
“There are still going to be many people who catch the disease and many people who die from it.” Anthony Banbury, who is heading the U.N.’s Ebola response
are seeing a severe surge in cases.
The Dec. 1 targets had been met in many places — but not all, which was the goal, said Anthony Banbury, who is heading the U.N.’s Ebola response.
“There are still going to be many people who catch the disease and many people who die from it,” Banbury said.
Even if the Dec. 1 targets had been reached, WHO and others had predicted Ebola would continue sickening people in West Africa and possibly elsewhere until next year. Ebola has sickened more than 16,000 people, of whom nearly 7,000 have died, according to figures released by the World Health Organization Friday.
Failing to reach the Dec. 1 target now suggests Ebola will spread even further as ca- pacities to respond become more stretched, said Oyewale Tomori, of Redeemer’s University in Nigeria, who sits on WHO’s Emergency Ebola committee.
“We need to redouble our efforts to see what we can do to reduce the spread and catch up with the virus,” he said. “Right now, it doesn’t look good.”
Other experts said the WHO goals were never very significant.
“You want to isolate 100 percent of patients with Ebola and have 100 percent safe burials,” said Sebastian Funk, director of the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “Getting to 70 percent doesn’t really mean a lot.”
The ultimate goal of WHO’s plan is to isolate all Ebola patients and provide safe burials for all by Jan. 1.
“The most dangerous thing would be if people now think Ebola is over and become complacent,” said Dr. David Heymann, an Ebola expert who previously worked for the World Health Organization.
Last month, the U.S. announced it was scaling back the size and number of Ebola clinics it had initially promised to build in Liberia, citing a drop in cases.