Colorado pulls up a front-row seat to show
In this era of the perpetual campaign, there is no real demarcation line as to when the venture begins. Announcements of candidacies are wholly artificial events that serve only to confirm what everyone already knew.
Yet two years from now, when the chronicles of the 2016 race hit the bookshelves, last week could well go down as the point when the race engaged and the contrast went on display.
With Hillary Clinton’s long, long (did I mention, long?) awaited announcement on Sunday followed by Marco Rubio’s declaration Monday night, we may well have seen each party put forward their most viable contender.
Eighteen months is an endless grind. There will be innumerable plot twists and turns. Some candidates will rise; others will wither. Ultimately, the outcome is more likely to be dictated by intervening events than tactical ploys.
There is but one certainty here: For better and for worse, Colorado will occupy a front-row seat as this battle is waged.
Influential Washington strategist Doug Sosnik recently noted, “The presidential contest has largely narrowed to five states.” His list includes Colorado, as well as with Ohio, Florida, Nevada and Virginia. And none other than the statistical eminence Nate Silver identified Colorado as “the tipping-point state” in both 2008 and 2012.
So if you are interested in “the show,” there is no better place to watch it. But whatever you do, make sure you have a pair of earplugs at the ready and a DVR in working order to navigate the seven rings of political advertising.
It’s a truism that every presidential election is historic. This one, like 2008, may actually live up to that billing. To have a race without an incumbent, or a vice president trying to pick up the mantle, is itself a rarity (again, as in 2008). Add to that the makings of a wide-open free-for-all among Republicans who have had a predilection for unimaginatively nominating the next in line.
To the mononymous Hillary: Some partisan will need to explain how the aura of inevitability has been bestowed on someone whose political skills are so in question; whose vulnerabilities are so glaring; and whose previous presidential race, which she also entered as a prohibitive favorite, ended so ingloriously.
While they are at it, perhaps that loyalist can provide guidance as to the wont of many to impute the political skills of one spouse to his marital partner. In this respect, Bill Clinton certainly had it (however “it” is defined), but does that mean his spouse is presumed to have those same gifts of political pitch and individual connection?
Hillary’s campaign promises to be a slog, long on palace intrigue, media sparring and poll-driven calculation while woefully short on joy, enthusiasm and conviction. Over recent months, her campaign-inwaiting is reported to have engaged more than 200 consultants and advertising-types to weigh in on Hillary’s new brand. We’ll see what they came up with, but safe to say that it will not center on any notion of authenticity.
The Clinton money machine plus the dearth of other viable Democratic candidates mean that Hillary is a huge favorite to gain her party’s nomination. But the path from here to there is likely to be anything but a seamless, straight line. And the possibility of some implosion can’t be completely discounted.
Last week’s other official entrant, Marco Rubio, is at this point just one of many. But he is, arguably, the Republican with the greatest upside and the potential to draw the most favorable contrast with Hillary Clinton.
Unlike Hillary, Rubio’s path to the nomination is littered with an assortment of traps and a slew of other viable contenders. He may be a bridesmaid or fizzle entirely. But more than a few Republicans have to relish the possible match-up of his message of aspiration versus her undertones of entitlement; his youthfulness versus her three-decade presence in the American consciousness; and with each laying claim to a historic first.
Eight years after Hillary lost the nomination to fresh-faced Barack Obama, there is a plausible scenario of another generational encounter in which Rubio steps into the Obama role with Hillary being relegated to the part of a tired John McCain. At least that’s a plot line to think about today.