“Frexit,” populism among top issues
paris » Here are three reasons why the French election matters:
RISK OF A FREXIT
Financial markets havewatched this election with exceptional attention, jittery over Marine Le Pen’s dreams of pulling France out of the European Union and its shared euro currency. Themarketmood has buoyed in recent days as polls show the chance of a Le Pen victory receding, but the prospect of a “Frexit” would be dire.
Far worse than Britain’s exit from the European Union, France’s departure from either the EU or the euro could spell death for the idea of European economic unity, which emerged from the bloodshed of World War II. France is a founding member of the EU, and its main driver along with former rival Germany.
Le Pen has waffled on how exactly she might deal with the EU as French president, but tapped into a widespread misunderstanding of the bloc, blaming it for myriad economic and security woes. She also blames free trade pacts for killing French jobs and wants to renegotiate them, which would cause a financial tangle for the rest of the EU and France’s trade partners.
TRUMP AND POPULISM
If Le Pen pulls off a surprise win, that would be a resounding victory for the populist wave reflected by the votes for President DonaldTrump and Brexit. Many Frenchworkerswho have lost jobs because of globalization are similarly fed up with establishment parties and attracted by promises of ditching the status quo.
Emmanuel Macron is an unabashed progressive who embraces globalization and championed startups and Uber-like car services as France’s economy minister — angering taxi drivers and otherworkerswho feel left behind. He has framed himself as a bulwark againstTrump’s protectionism— and he won an unusually high-profile endorsement last week from former U.S. President Barack Obama.
Even if Le Pen loses, however, she has proven that populism is a powerful force in France that could make it hard for Macron to accomplish his goals even if he wins.
ASSAD’S SYRIA AND PUTIN’S RUSSIA
France is a nuclear powerwith a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council and tens of thousands of troops scattered around theworld. It is also a key U.S. ally in the campaign against the Islamic State group.
Macron would likely keep up the French operations against extremists in Iraq and Syria and Africa’s Sahel region— and keep up pressure onRussia overUkraine and its actions to bolster Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Le Pen, on the other hand, firmly backs Assad and has distanced herself fromTrump over recentU.S. airstrikes targeting Assad’s regime. Le Pen also met recently with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and would push for lifting sanctions against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine.