Winner of arms race gets NL West crown
Pitching favors Dodgers, but Rockies and D-backs won’t be pushovers
The Rockies, now in their 25th season, have never won a National League West title.
That daunting fact has not escaped first-year Rockies manager Bud Black. He also is acutely aware that the pitching-rich Los Angeles Dodgers have long been the big dogs on the block, and he believes revitalized Arizona is the real deal.
But you want to know something else? Black believes in his Rockies and doesn’t spend much time pondering team history, or worrying about what his competitors are doing.
“We’re all aware of what’s going on,” he said. “But also, they’re aware of us too. This is what we talk about in our clubhouse: We have to worry about what we do. I know I’m beating a dead horse when I say this, but truly that’s how we go about it. We have to play our game and not worry about what other teams are doing.”
The Rockies enter Sunday with a 35-23 record, a half game behind the Dodgers (35-22) in the West, with the Diamondbacks (34-24) 1½ games behind. The Rockies are off to the best start in franchise history, but they can’t afford to slump or stagger much, because this is shaping up as the best race in baseball.
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, this is only the third time since divisions began in 1969 that three teams from the same division were all at least 10 games above .500 entering June. It also happened in the American League East in 1986 (Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles) and in the NL Central in 2013 (Cardinals, Reds and Pirates).
Rockies first baseman Mark Reynolds has seen this before.
“In 2015, when I was on the Cardinals, we had to win 100 games to win NL Central,” he said. “The Cubs had 99 wins, the Pirates had 98. It looks like we’re shaping up for one of those kinds of summers in the NL West now too.”
A number of key factors will determine who wins the West, but one thing that can’t be ignored is history.
The Dodgers know how to win, while Colorado and Arizona have not proven they do. Los Angeles has won the past four NL West titles and has been the king of the West 15 times since divisions began in
I’m not here to rain on the Rockies’ early-season victory parade. And, no, I’m not panicking over a few losses or a rough patch in the road.
As Purple Row blogger Eric Garcia Mckinley noted in his Saturday piece, the Rockies are going to struggle in 2017, something even the best teams experience over the course of a long season. He also points out that the mighty 2016 Cubs, winners of 103 regular-season games and the World Series, went 4-11 from June 25 through July 9.
But I’m not about to don purplecolored glasses either, because I see red flags on the Rockies’ horizon, and keeping pace with the Diamondbacks, and especially the Dodgers, in the wild, wild, National League West is going to be difficult for them.
Let’s begin with Colorado’s starting pitching.
Like many of you, I’ve celebrated the story of talented rookies Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland and German Marquez. They have exceeded expectations, making up for the loss of Jon Gray to a broken foot and masking the ineffectiveness of Tyler Chatwood and Tyler Anderson.
But rookies will be rookies, no matter how talented they are. So I suspect there will be more performances like the one Marquez suffered Friday night in San Diego. He had great stuff — especially his biting curveball — but he threw multiple mistake pitches that cost the Rockies the game.
Marquez had gone 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA in his previous four starts, but he was erratic in an 8-5 loss to the Padres. Marquez served up two-run homers to Austin Hedges in the fourth inning and to Yangervis Solarte in the fifth. He gave up six runs on eight hits in five innings.
“The games that we’ve lost, we haven’t had good starting pitching,” manager Bud Black said after his squad lost for the sixth time in its past nine games.
Over those nine game, Colorado pitchers had a 4.59 ERA, including a 5.19 ERA from the rotation and just four quality starts.
Gray’s return should help, as could the arrival of right-hander Jeff Hoffman, but Colorado’s starting pitching is looking suspect.
Almost as disconcerting, the bridge to closer Greg Holland is shaky. Adam Ottavino is on the disabled list because of an inflamed right shoulder and left-hander Mike Dunn is now a weak link.
Dunn hasn’t been the same since coming back from the DL on May 3. In 13 games, he has given up 10 runs over 10 innings and his ERA has risen from 1.17 to 5.60. He has served up homers in three of his last four appearances. Perhaps his back is still bothering him, but for whatever reason, Dunn has looked like two different pitchers.
Perhaps lefty Chris Rusin, the dependable long reliever, can be the late-game reliever the Rockies need for the time being.
Offensively, the Rockies have flashed power (their 71 homers rank sixth in the NL) and they have shown the ability to execute and advance runners. Their .318 batting average with runners in scoring position leads the NL.
Yet I’m still troubled by Carlos Gonzalez’s disappointing season. Yes, he has shown signs of emerging from his deep spring funk, but he is batting only .238 and his onbase percentage is a meager .311. More troubling is his .178 average with runners in scoring position — a far cry from his .291 career average. Simply put, Cargo hasn’t been delivering in the clutch.
Bottom line: The Rockies are a good, young team with a lot of potential, but with some troubling flaws. To get a playoff berth, they have to repair those flaws. To win the NL West for the first time in franchise history, general manager Jeff Bridich will have to work the phones as the July 31 trade deadline approaches.
Patrick Saunders is the president of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America: psaunders@denverpost.com or @psaundersdp