THE MONEY RACE
Because of state campaign-finance laws, candidates with more personal wealth have a head start on the competition.
Colorado’s race for governor has only just begun, but already political strategists in both parties expect the 2018 contest to shatter state spending records. Fueling this belief is the entry of one — and possibly two — uber-wealthy candidates who could take advantage of Colorado’s campaign rules to overwhelm the opposition with money from their own pockets.
On the Democratic side, all eyes are on internet mogul-turned-congressman Jared Polis of Boulder, who starts his primary run in the pole position due largely to a net worth that starts at $142 million — and could be as high as $468 million.
Republicans are waiting to see if their race will be reshaped by Kent Thiry, the CEO of Denver-based DaVita Inc., who makes about $12 million in annual salary alone.
Big money doesn’t always guarantee victory in politics — just look at Jeb Bush’s failed run for president. And the candidates looking to replace Gov. John Hickenlooper are among the most talented the state has seen in years; already several have begun to strategize on how best to stay afloat amid a flood of cash. But a checkbook filled with zeros is a good problem to have, and it’s the principal reason the 2018 race will be one for the history books.
“It will break all records, without a doubt,” said David Flaherty, a political consultant with the Colorado-based firm
Magellan Strategies. “More money will be spent on this governor’s race than ever before in the history of the state.”
So why does personal wealth matter so much?
There are several reasons, starting with Colorado’s strict limits on fundraising.
Unlike federal rules, which allow individual donors to give a combined $5,400 in the primary and general elections, state regulations limit those contributions to roughly a fifth of that amount, or $1,150 per person.
In other words, candidates looking to compete with Polis and potentially Thiry will have to reach five times as many contributors to snag the cash they would get from one donor in a federal race — an outreach effort further complicated by the sheer number of Democrats and Republicans in the contest.
In addition to Polis, the Democratic side includes U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter, former state Sen. Mike Johnston, former State Treasurer Cary Kennedy and Intertech Plastics founder Noel Ginsburg. Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne also is considering a run.
The GOP field currently features George Brauchler, the prosecutor of the Aurora theater shooter; Doug Robinson, the nephew of Mitt Romney; and businessman and former state lawmaker Victor Mitchell. State Treasurer Walker Stapleton is expected to join the race too.
Some of these candidates can also self-fund, though to a lesser degree than Polis or Thiry. All are expected to fight over a limited pool of small-dollar donors.
There is no state limit on the amount a candidate can spend from his or her own bank account — an edge Polis used to a similar advantage in 2008 when he dropped $6 million of his own money to win his first race for Congress.
“When somebody is willing to pull out their checkbook, it can change the dynamic a lot,” said Joan Fitz-Gerald, a former state Senate president who lost the 2008 congressional race to Polis in the Democratic primary. “It’s a pretty big advantage.”
Not only can self-funders hire top-notch staff and buy a miniseries worth of TV ads, they also get extra time to meet with voters when they might otherwise be on the phone dialing for dollars.
“It makes a difference and, I think, in a governor’s race is going to be a bigger advantage,” FitzGerald said.
Asked recently about the fundraising dynamic, Polis said his ability to underwrite his own campaign helps to insulate him from the influence of lobbyists and big-dollar donors.
To that end, Polis said he would impose restrictions on donations to his campaign. He won’t accept contributions greater than $100, and he won’t take money from political action committees, which often derive their funds from corporations or ideological causes.
“If I’m elected this will … make sure that I’m not beholden to any special interests or industries or wealthy donors and I’ll be able to make decisions based entirely on what’s good for our state,” he said.
Polis, of course, has the luxury to set those rules, given that he is consistently among the 10 richest members of Congress thanks to a series of internet business ventures, including online greeting cards and ProFlowers.com.
The large range of his estimated wealth, between $142 million and $468 million, is due to the broad way that lawmakers are required to report their finances to Congress.
Thiry, who has not said whether he plans to run, told The Denver Post that he would be open to the idea of using his own fortune from dialysis giant DaVita Inc. to fund his next move — whether that’s a ballot initiative or a gubernatorial bid.
“Certainly my wife and I have been blessed with a lot of good luck and then therefore we do have resources that could be targeted for an initiative or anything else I do,” he said.
Thiry made waves last year when he bankrolled — to the tune of $2.4 million — two Colorado ballot questions that changed how the state conducts elections. Notable for the 2018 governor’s race is the one that allows unaffiliated voters to cast their ballots in primary races without joining a party.
Both Democratic and Republican operatives said this change provides the most benefit to the candidates with the most money — as they have the funds to seek the support of independent voters, who are both difficult to decipher and expensive to win over.
Rick Palacio, who until recently chaired the Colorado Democratic Party, said the inclusion of independent voters in party primaries will expand the voter pool far beyond the traditional “lanes” commonly found in those races, such as far-left or center-right.
“With an open primary, we’ve got not just lanes here but whole new highways — a whole new highway system that will be need to be built to reach an audience that’s potentially twice as large as the Democratic primary in the past,” said Palacio, who is backing Perlmutter.
Colorado is divided almost evenly among Democrats, Republicans and independents — with more than 1 million voters per group. The cost of wooing independents in the primaries will make the 2018 contest a “much more expensive race than anyone would have anticipated,” Palacio said.
By way of comparison, Hickenlooper spent about $5.5 million in Colorado’s 2014 race for governor, beating Republican Bob Beauprez, who spent $2.9 million — including about $1 million of his own money.
Candidates are dealing with the new reality in a variety of ways.
Among Republicans, former state legislator Mitchell has vowed to drop $3 million of his own money to try to keep pace. Robinson, a former investment banker, helped run his uncle’s 2012 presidential campaign in Colorado and could tap into the Romney network.
Those two, along with Brauchler, also are reaching out to a donor class that Flaherty of Magellan Strategies said remains in a wait-and-see mode.
“A lot of people are just watching and listening to the candidates,” said Flaherty, a former staffer at the Republican National Committee whose company now is doing work for Brauchler.
Part of the hesitation has to do with the anticipated entry of Stapleton.
The Republican state treasurer is widely expected to run, and he’s made moves in the last year to increase his visibility and viability. He appeared in TV ads opposing Amendment 69, the failed attempt to create a universal health care system, and he’s publicly advocated for term limits.
There’s also the expectation that a separate pro-Stapleton committee — in addition to the official one run by his campaign — will raise and spend money to back his candidacy.
That tactic has become increasingly common in U.S. politics, notably by Bush, a Stapleton relative, whose unsuccessful 2016 presidential campaign was supported by a super PAC called Right to Rise that raised more than $100 million on his behalf.
An independent expenditure committee that backed Stapleton’s 2014 run for treasurer — named Coloradans for Fiscal Responsibility — remains active, though its current balance is about $2,000, according to state records.
Among Democrats, Johnston so far appears the best positioned to challenge Polis’ campaign cash. He raised an impressive $633,000 to start his campaign by drawing upon connections to his hometown of Vail, his schooling at Yale and his work in the education and nonprofit sectors.
One of his key constituencies is a group of education reformers on the Democratic side — a crowd that cheered Johnston’s drive to bring a teacher evaluation system to Colorado. His effort there, however, could make it tough for Johnston to earn support from the teacher’s union.
Johnston is also likely to benefit from a separate committee similar to the one expected to back Stapleton.
On June 9, an independent expenditure committee called Frontier Fairness was registered in Colorado with the stated purpose of supporting “one or more candidate(s) for state office, including gubernatorial candidates,” according to state records.
Johnston’s campaign slogan is “Frontier Fairness.”
His fast start, coupled with Polis’ expected spending, has put added pressure on Perlmutter and Kennedy to post a strong showing in their first fundraising quarters, which will become public in midJuly.
Perlmutter already has received the support of the Denver Pipefitters Local 208, and garnering further union support would give a boost to his chances.
The sixth-term congressman also will have to contend with an independent expenditure committee called Better Colorado Now. The group registered days after he joined the race, and its expressed goal is to “oppose Ed Perlmutter for governor,” according to state filings.
In Kennedy’s corner is the group Emily’s List, which supports female Democratic candidates who advocate for abortion rights. She’ll need to expand her base beyond that group, however, if she wants to have the resources to compete with the rest of the field.
A Kennedy aide said “she has been working seven days a week” to solicit votes and contributions.
An X factor hanging over both the Republican and Democratic primaries is the infusion of outside money from either special interests or causes.
Last year, U.S. Senate candidate Darryl Glenn — who lagged far behind his rivals in cash — rode to victory in the Republican primary with the help of the Senate Conservatives Fund, a group founded by former U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina.
It remains uncertain which outside groups will play in the 2018 race, though the state’s oil and gas industry is likely to oppose Polis’ campaign, as he’s tangled with the industry before and outlined a vision to have Colorado use 100 percent renewable energy by 2040.
Eric Sondermann, an independent Denver political consultant, said the odds are good that a significant amount of outside money will enter the governor’s race.
“Because of those low contribution limits, no candidate with the exception of a self-funder can really raise sufficient funds within those limits to mount a fully robust campaign,” he said.
It’s another reason, he said, “this thing will be a free-for-all.”
Staff writers John Frank and Aldo Svaldi contributed to this report.