What is next for North Korea, Guam, Trump, nuclear tension?
SAN JOSE, CALIF.» Threatening language between the U.S. and North Korea is flaring this week. After President Donald Trump vowed to respond with “fire and fury” if Pyongyang continued to threaten the U.S., the North’s military said it is finalizing a plan to fire four midrange missiles to hit waters near the strategic U.S. territory of Guam. Below, North Korea experts in the U.S. discuss the gravity of the moment and where both countries, and the world, could go from here:
Despite Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s efforts to play down Trump’s statements on unleashing “fire and fury” on the North, it seems Trump deliberately or inadvertently threatened nuclear annihilation of North Korea. One of the consequences of this war of words and the associated escalation postures is that it would be very hard for the United States and North Korea to back down after having quickly pushed each other close to the brink.
Despite this escalation, it is my belief that the possibility of a nuclear exchange, although higher than normal, is still below the threshold of actual usage . ... It is absolutely essential to find ways to bring North Korea to the negotiating table and engage it in talks and remove the cloud of nuclear war that is hanging over the world. Getting the North Koreans to the negotiating table is not something that could be achieved in the short term, but (the U.S., North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia) and the U.N. Security Council must work towards laying the groundwork toward this objective.
Both leaders are primarily speaking to their domestic audiences. Trump wants or needs to appear strong to fit his image and previous rhetoric. Kim needs to maintain the illusion of him being the only possible savior of his country and people — an island of virtue adrift in a sea of brutal enemies. With China and Russia agreeing to the U.N. sanctions against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (the North’s official name), Kim truly looks and feels alone and will increase his strident rhetoric. Engaging in this theater with him, escalating the intensity and threat of our responses, will be detrimental and actually plays into Kim’s hands, regarding maintaining control of the regime.
There are no good military options that wouldn’t result in deaths of thousands in the first day, and even then it might not eliminate DPRK capability. The world may ultimately have to rely on mutually assured destruction — that nukes self-deter and no one goes to nuclear war. But that will also create great instability on a conventional and unconventional warfare level. Ironically, it may be Trump that escalates and causes war.
Could North Korea truly attack Guam? It’s likely no. No one outside of a small number of people in the DPRK can know for sure. Nonetheless, that capability is beyond anything that they have demonstrated thus far. Guam is a noncredible threat; Seoul and Japan are credible threats.
Trump’s comments on Twitter are irresponsible. They do nothing to help the U.S. or our allies. It increases instability. Our diplomats need to be empowered to do their jobs.
Trump’s statements seem to mirror Kim’s language. Is he trying to talk to Kim in words he understands? Is this just the way Trump talks? Is Trump trying to be unpredictable and thus change China’s calculation and raise the cost for supporting Kim? It is honestly hard to say. But the rest of the national security establishment in the U.S. seems to be walking Trump’s rhetoric back.
The hope is that Kim feels compelled to come back to the negotiating table. One possible way to do that would be to make him think that the U.S. is feeling less constrained to act. That, of course, carries big risks that he might preemptively strike. However, it seems clear to me that Kim’s nuclear program is a tool for keeping his regime in power and engaging in a nuclear exchange with the U.S. will be an existential issue for him. So I doubt Kim will be inclined to strike first. If that is Trump’s assessment as well, he might simply be attempting to create uncertainty in Kim and hopefully get him to start negotiating.