Walking away from Iran deal risks U.S. credibility

President Donald Trump appears to have decided not to certify that “it is in the national security interest of the United States” to stay in the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action, or JCPOA, a non-proliferation agreement that restricts Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon. Not certifying absent credible evidence — and against the advice of military advisers — would isolate the United States and severely damage our credibility.

With Pyongyang racing to advance its nuclear program and build its ballistic missile arsenal, that credibility has never been more important. The United States needs Chinese, Russian, and European cooperation to enforce sanctions and hold the North Korean regime accountable. And, our deterrence means nothing unless our adversaries believe that we will keep our word.

In this context, the president’s reported decision makes no sense. He has not presented evidence that Iran has failed to keep its end of the deal. Our partners in the nuclear agreement, including Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, have affirmed that it is working. The International Atomic Energy Agency, the independent inspection and verification watchdog, has repeatedly said Iran is upholding its commitments. The Trump administration itself has twice certified Iran’s compliance.

A generous view of the president’s approach would assert that he’s seeking the upper hand by playing hard ball. But this ignores that the JCPOA is the product of years of multilateral sanctions brought to bear on Iran’s economy by the United States, Russia, China, and the Europeans. To believe this coalition could be reconstituted if the U.S. walks away, completely misunderstands the current security environment.

Just last week, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said that it is, in fact, in our national security interest to remain in the JCPOA. To state the obvious, withdrawing would risk Iran restarting its nuclear program. Furthermore, it would hinder our ability to hold Iran accountable for its destabilizing activities. It would also undermine the leverage we currently hold with the very partners we need for a successful negotiation.

Having the JCPOA in place does not change the facts about Iran’s bad behavior. From Yemen, to Syria, to Lebanon, Iran foments terrorism and sows destabilizing violence. Iran has killed our troops in the field and continuously threatens our close ally, Israel.

That is why Congress recently passed sanctions to target the Iranian regime’s support for terrorism, its pursuit of a ballistic missiles program, and its human rights abuses. This bipartisan legislation was carefully drawn to avoid undermining the JCPOA because Republicans and Democrats agreed that all of Iran’s malevolent acts would be even more dangerous if backed by a nuclear weapon.

The president needs a plan to counter Iran’s conventional and asymmetric threats. He should start by implementing the recently-passed laws and pressuring our European allies to counter Iran’s destabilizing non-nuclear behavior.

The nuclear agreement itself is not perfect. The administration should work with the United Nations Security Council’s five permanent members to develop a strategy for negotiating a follow-on agreement to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon beyond the JCPOA’s horizon.

But these dual efforts can and must be done with the agreement intact. The catastrophic, baseless decision to invade Iraq continues to haunt our credibility. Another such decision would drive a wedge in the transatlantic alliance. It would also allow Iran to promote its JCPOA compliance as moral high ground and accelerate its expanding influence in the region.

It’s possible that President Trump is simply seeking to look tough to appeal to his political base. But the secondary and long-term consequences of such a decision could be disastrous. That is the reality of governing. We can only hope this reality will trump political promises. American credibility is on the line and the security of our nation demands it.