IS KYLER MURRAY THE RIGHT QB FOR THE BRONCOS?
Ten things to consider after Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray announced his decision Monday to pursue an NFL career over professional baseball:
1. A Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback joining the mix two weeks before the NFL travels to Indianapolis for the scouting combine? This will certainly spice up the predraft season that so far has been dominated by — yawn — defense.
2. Choosing football was the right move for Murray. He’s only 21 years old (he turns 22 on Aug. 7). If football doesn’t work out, he can walk away with firstround money and still give baseball a try. Based on last year’s NFL contracts, Murray would be guaranteed an estimated $18 million if drafted 10th overall. A first-round deal plus endorsement money would set him up financially.
3. More available quarterbacks in the first round could definitely help the Broncos, who sit at No. 10. If a team is enamored with Murray (like Miami at No. 13) to trade up for him, that means the Broncos could stay put and still get Missouri’s Drew Lock. Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins should still be considered the top quarterback.
4. The first knock on Murray is obvious: his height. He’s listed at 5-foot-10. Everybody will point to Drew Brees as a reason shorter quarterbacks can thrive. But Brees is listed at 6-foot and
didn’t start a movement toward smaller passers getting opportunities. Per the Wall Street Journal last April (before the draft), of the 69 quarterbacks selected in the first round in the last 30 years, only four were listed at 6-1 or shorter: Cade McNown, Michael Vick, Rex Grossman and Johnny Manziel. And per Elias, Murray would be the shortest quarterback drafted in the first round since 1967. An outlier is Seattle’s Russell Wilson, who has made it work being 5-11. He was drafted in the third round.
5. The second knock on Murray: his experience … or lack thereof. He started only 17 of 29 games in college — three as a freshman at Texas A&M, one in 2017 for Oklahoma and 13 for the Sooners in 2018. He had only 519 collegiate passing attempts. Compare that to Lock’s 1,553. Haskins had only 590. Teams will have to do a whole lot of projecting on Murray and Haskins.
6. Broncos general manager John Elway has drafted two quarterbacks were 6-7: Brock Osweiler at No. 57 overall in 2012 and Paxton Lynch at No. 26 in 2016. Osweiler went 5-6 as a starter for the Broncos in two stints. Lynch flamed out (1-3) and was cut after the 2018 preseason. But none of this year’s top quarterbacks is as tall as 6-6. At the Senior Bowl, Duke’s Daniel Jones was 6-5 1/4, Lock was 6-3 3/4 and West Virginia’s Will Grier 6-2 1/2.
7. Where Elway has an advantage in gambling on Murray: The Broncos don’t have an owner. Teams like Jacksonville would clean house if it takes Murray and he doesn’t immediately work out. The same for Arizona general manager Steve Keim if he trades Josh Rosen and takes Murray first overall. Elway has the luxury of running the football operations nearly unfettered, which should allow him to be aggressive (trade up for a quarterback) or bold (stay put and take Murray).
8. During the combine, it will be interesting to see when teams started digging in on their evaluation of Murray. Midseason? After the Heisman/before the College Football Playoff ? Or in preseason camp like other potential underclassmen? It won’t impact head coaches, offensive coordinators and quarterback coaches — they wouldn’t have begun studying him this fall anyway.
9. A few statistics that jump out about Murray: Completion accuracy (69.0 percent in 2018), touchdown-to-interception ratio (42-7), rushing ability (7.2 yards per attempt) and, here’s the big one, yards per pass attempt (11.6). That set an FBS record (the old mark was 11.1). That shows he has an ability to power the football down the field but is also accurate on short passes that give his receiver the ability to gain yards after the catch.
10. I will stay on the vine that the Broncos’ best option is keeping Case Keenum and drafting a quarterback in the top 10. This team is not close to contending in the AFC West. The Broncos need to have a long view instead of a quick-fix view. That means drafting and developing a passer instead of spending beaucoup bucks on Nick Foles.