The Denver Post

Why picking Duke will sink your pool

- MARK KISZLA Denver Post Columnist

Oh, no. You didn’t pick Duke. Did you? I hate to be the one to bust your bracket before the Big Dance really gets started, but the Blue Devils aren’t winning the NCAA basketball tournament.

There will be no joy in Krzyzewski­ville, because Coach K won’t be cutting down the net at the Final Four.

Sorry, Zion. I don’t want to burst your bubble (or your sneaker). But the madness won’t really begin until the Devils go down in flames, despite being the heaviest favor- ites to win the Final Four since Kentucky entered the tourney undefeated four years ago.

Although the Dukies almost certainly will have three players taken among the first five picks of the next NBA draft, with the names of R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish to be called shortly after Williamson is cho-

sen No. 1, they don’t have what it takes to win the championsh­ip.

Why? The Duke roster is constructe­d all wrong for how basketball is played in 2019. In a sport where the 3-ball rules, the Devils drool. They can’t shoot straight.

Now, if you’re a die-hard college basketball fan, you’ve probably heard Duke’s Achilles’ heel is the 3-ball. But how bad can the team’s 30.2 percent accuracy from on 3-point field goals really be, when Williamson is built like the Incredible Hulk and can fly like Michael Jordan?

Put it this way: Even if Zion is the most dominant college player since His Royal Airness, history suggests the Devils have no shot to win it all.

Since the 3-point basket was adopted for NCAA Tournament play in 1987, not a single one of the previous 32 national champions has been as inept from beyond the arc as Duke is this season. The Devils are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in America, with their horrendous 30.2 percent marksmansh­ip ranked 339th in the country.

In fact, go all the way back to the days when Steve Alford and Keith Smart were running around in those cute red short-shorts on the court for Indiana, and you will find only six of the last 32 champs made fewer than 35 percent of their 3point field goal attempts. Duke’s long-range inefficien­cy has set the sport back three decades. Where’s JJ Redick when Coach K really needs him?

Duke was revealed as a flawed team that went 3-3 during the absence of Williamson, who hobbled off with an injured knee after his fluky wardrobe malfunctio­n in the opening minute of a game in February against North Carolina. But the most serious imperfecti­on was revealed during the Devils’ five regular-season losses, when they made only 37 of the 148 shots jacked up from 3-point range. That’s 25 percent, for those of you keeping score at home.

The beauty of March Madness is how one crazy game can change everything. All it requires is one team with a hot hand from 3-point range to shoot Duke’s championsh­ip dreams full of holes. And don’t be surprised if it happens before the Devils even reach the Final Four. Virginia Tech, an Atlantic Coast Conference rival that beat the Dukies last month, looms as a possible Sweet Sixteen matchup, and Michigan State would have no fear of the nation’s top-ranked team in the East regional final.

Please remember: Karl Anthony-Towns and the Wildcats of 2015 that were considered unbeatable didn’t win the tournament. It seems to me Duke is doomed to the same fate.

Before jumping head-first into the office pool, consider yourself warned. If it’s not too late, grab a bottle of Wite-Out and correct your bracket. Pick Michigan State or Carolina or Gonzaga as the champ.

Anybody but Duke. In a make or miss game, these Devils can’t shoot straight.

 ??  ??

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from United States