Are the struggling Rockies already toast in the National League playoff picture?

The calendar has not yet reached Memorial Day. But have the Rockies’ playoff dreams died before the flowers reach full bloom? Coming into a year full of lofty World Series expectations, Colorado stumbled out of the gate and has never really found its footing. Yes, more than 100 games remain on the schedule. But how much shot do the Rockies really have of booking a trip to the postseason for the third consecutive season? Newman: Per Fangraphs, Colorado’s playoff chances stand at 6.5 percent, with a 0.3 percent chance to unseat the Dodgers (9½ games up) in the West. So Kiz, yes it’s a long season, but with the depth in the East (Phillies, Braves, Nationals) and the Central (Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals) — not to mention the Padres outpacing Colorado early in its own division — I wouldn’t make any bets on a third straight Rocktober.

The aggravating inconsistency with this team begins on the mound. I had hope this could be the best starting rotation in franchise history. But far too often, Colorado’s starting pitcher hasn’t given teammates a legitimate shot at winning. And the biggest disappointment? For me, it has to be Kyle Freeland. Hey, everybody around here loves the Denver kid. But his record is 2-5, and his earned run average is 6.02. What has gone wrong with K-Free? Newman: While right-hander German Marquez has (mostly) held up his end of the bargain as one of Colorado’s co-aces, Freeland has looked like some Average Joe. He has given up a National League-worst 12 homers and is on pace to yield 43, after giving up 17 homers in both 2017 and 2018. What’s most alarming is the lack of location for a guy who thrives off being a technician on the mound; what was weak contact last year has become barreled-up pitches this year.

When the Rockies woke up Monday and checked the standings, they were tied for last in the NL West, but still somehow within 4½ games of the final wild-card spot. Here’s the most daunting challenge facing Colorado, though: I figure it will take at least 87 victories to qualify for the playoffs. The Rockies would have to go 67-50 the rest of this season to get ’er done. What are the chances of that? And what’s the best reason for hope you can offer me? Newman: It’s hard to offer tons of optimism here, Kiz. To play .573 ball from here on out, a number of concerning trends must quickly reverse. That begins with the rotation, because if the unit’s NL-worst 5.64 ERA doesn’t deflate, Colorado’s season will be over by the all-star break. Also, striking out 9.9 times a game isn’t going to get it done. And hey, Colorado probably needs magic to make it happen, too, whether that’s Brendan Rodgers emulating Troy Tulowitzki’s 2007 rookie season or the bullpen becoming nearly bulletproof.