July date could be finale for up to half of the candidates
The prime-time Democratic debate in Detroit late this month could be a season finale for as many as half the candidates who have made the stage, as they struggle to meet the higher qualification requirements that will go into effect for later televised gatherings.
Just six candidates have met the combined polling and donor thresholds needed to appear onstage for the debate in mid-September, according to public surveys and selfreported donor counts. Four of the others are close to passing both tests, according to a Washington Post analysis of the field.
But for the remaining 14 candidates, including 10 who will appear on the July debate stage, securing a lectern and therefore a chance to speak directly to millions of voters gets much more complicated.
Top aides to several campaigns said they are changing their strategy or effectively abandoning hope of being onstage in September and aiming instead for the October debate, which has the same thresholds.
Former Maryland congressman John Delaney’s campaign spokesman said the heightened requirements for geographically disparate donors that will be in place for September are forcing him to spend precious resources on ginning up national interest in a campaign they intended to focus largely on Iowa and early states.
Other campaigns said they spent more money on digital ads to try to reach the debate thresholds. Some have found that the cost of acquiring a new $1 donor can exceed $50.
The DNC plans to hold at least 12 presidential debates; the series began in Miami on two nights at the end of June, with 10 candidates onstage at each sitting. The July debate will be held under the same rules on the 30th and 31st.
Candidates could participate in the June and July debates if they reached a polling target of 1 percent in three polls, or had received donations from at least 65,000 people, including at least 200 in 20 states.
But to get on the stage for the September and October debates, candidates will be required to meet both thresholds, which doubled to 2 percent in four polls and a minimum of 130,000 donors, with at least 400 donors in 20 states.
The DNC and media partners ABC News and Univision have set aside two evenings for the September debates, so there will be slots available for up to 20 candidates.
Of the 20 candidates who qualified for the July debate, just 14 of them met the donor test and the polling test that were in place for the summer debates. Six others made the stage since the DNC allowed candidates to qualify via either the donor requirement or the polling test.
Several candidates have disclosed receiving a fraction of the required number of donors — 6,700 in the case of New York Mayor Bill de Blasio and about 14,000 in the case of former Gov. John Hickenlooper, as of the end of the second quarter. Several other campaigns have kept their donor totals secret, suggesting they have not yet hit the threshold.
Ten of the candidates who will appear onstage in July — including Michael Bennet of Colorado — have not received 2 percent in any partysanctioned polls since the June debate. To qualify for the September gathering, they will need to achieve that hurdle in polls released between June 28 and Aug. 28. Bennet’s operation sees a hope of breaking out of the pack at a later date and has made clear he is prepared to continue in the race even if he loses access to the early fall debates.