Just wait till the year after next year: 2021 could be widest playoff window
Considering the Rockies are going on 27 seasons without a divisional title, another year of waiting for the team to blossom is probably not the most appealing idea to the fan base.
Unfortunately, all indications are that the Rockies’ truest, and widest, playoff window will be the 2021 season. The 2020 season looks to be another letdown because of slower-than-anticipated prospect development and massive, dead-weight veteran contracts. Consider:
• By 2021, general manager Jeff Bridich’s three worst investments on the current roster will be gone, if they’re not traded beforehand. The contracts for Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee are all up after the 2020 season, although all three have options for 2021. Davis, demoted from his closer’s role this season, has a $1 million buyout the club would be dumb not to exercise; the same goes for McGee’s $2 million buyout.
• Speaking of dumb, Colorado would be ill-advised to let Shaw reach 60 pitching appearances this season. He was at 56 games entering Tuesday, and if he pitches in four more games, his $9 million option for 2021 becomes guaranteed if the righthander is healthy for that season’s opening day. The Rockies can’t let that happen, especially considering how poorly he has pitched the past two seasons.
• Also by 2021, Daniel Murphy will probably be done in Denver (his twoyear, $24 million deal is up next season, and he has a $12 million mutual option for 2021). And Ian Desmond — if he hasn’t been run out of town by then — will be a much less expensive utility player. Desmond will be in the last year of his five-year, $70 million deal in 2021 and is scheduled to make “just” $8 million (compared to $15 million this year and next). With Murphy probably gone and Desmond in a diminished role (at best), that frees up both payroll and opportunities for young players who should be ready to be lineup anchors.
• Two youngsters are the backbone of this team’s future. Ryan McMahon is clearly “built to play” in the bigs, as manger Bud Black likes to say, and his continued maturation into one of the team’s core players alongside Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl is critical. McMahon has the versatility to play first base when top prospect Brendan Rodgers cements himself at second base, as Rodgers (who underwent seasonending shoulder surgery this year) should start doing next year.
• Pitching-wise, Colorado’s prospects are also brighter in 2021 than they are in 2020. By 2021, both Jon Gray and German Marquez should have plenty of seasoning to be co-aces. Meanwhile, right-handed rookie Peter Lambert will have time to grow and top pitching prospect Ryan Rolison, now with Single-A Advanced Lancaster, should be in the rotation. Throw in a rebuilt Kyle Freeland, the progression of rising bullpen prospects such as southpaw Ben Bowden and freed-up money to make hot stove acquisitions to shore up the staff, and the pitching figures to be much better. (But we thought that this year, too.)
• 2021 will also be the last guaranteed year of Nolan Arenado in LoDo, as the third baseman can opt out of his contract after that season. Plus, Gray, Story and top reliever Scott Oberg are set to become free agents in 2022; Freeland and Tony Wolters will hit free agency in 2023. Hence, 2021 will be the best window in terms of maximizing the club’s homegrown talent, some of whom Colorado will surely re-sign in the meantime and some of whom will end up elsewhere.
Bottom line, Rockies fans, if you think this cellar-dwelling, dumpster fire of a season tested your patience, just wait. Things could be awful next season too until the team’s rebuilt core finally emerges … in the spring of 2021.