Colo. primary polls have Bernie Sanders leading
Bernie Sanders has opened double-digit leads over the crowded Democratic presidential field in Colorado, according to two new polls this week — the first surveys of the state’s primary voters to be released since last summer.
But the results suggest the battle for 67 convention delegates at stake in next Tuesday’s primary is still competitive. Voting is already underway.
The latest poll, out Thursday from Magellan Strategies, found Sanders, the U.S. senator from Vermont, had support from 27% of 500 likely Democratic and unaffiliated voters polled on Monday and Tuesday.
Given that the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points, the results reveal a close battle for second place: U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren polled at 15% and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg received 12% support, while former Vice President Joe Biden and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg were tied at 11%.
U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar trailed the pack at 6%, while former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer was at 1.4% and U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard was at 0.6%.
Fully 13% of poll participants said they were undecided and 2% refused to answer — giving all eight major candidates room to grow in the final five days of the primary.
“Bernie’s really the only one who can be feeling pretty confident heading into next Tuesday,” said Ryan Winger, Magellan’s director of data analysis. “The bigger question is, among that group of four that’s fighting for second place, how does that all shake out? They’re all near the 15% viability threshold” to win delegates.
Those 67 “pledged” delegates will be apportioned based on results at the statewide level and within congressional districts.
In another poll released Wednesday, Sanders led by a slightly larger margin — 14 percentage points — among 471 like
ly Colorado primary voters surveyed. That poll was conducted online Sunday through Tuesday by Data for Progress, a progressive public opinion research group.
Sanders landed 34% support, and the other candidates’ relative positions were similar to the Magellan poll: Warren at 20%, Buttigieg and Bloomberg tied at 14%, Biden at 10% and Klobuchar at 6%. But that poll did not appear to allow respondents to indicate if they were undecided. Its margin of error was plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
Magellan, a Republican polling firm based in Louisville, says it was not paid by any clients to do the poll. The firm frequently polls Colorado voters about political races and public issues and is well regarded by political observers.
This week’s poll was conducted on landlines and cellphones by live interviewers, and Magellan says it “slightly weighted” the results to reflect voting demographics from previous Democratic primaries in the state.
Last Colorado poll was in August
Colorado is among 15 states and territories with Super Tuesday contests, making for the biggest day of the primary season as Democrats select a nominee to take on President Donald Trump in November.
But there has been a dearth of public polling in Colorado — until now.
Before Wednesday, the last Democratic primary poll here was released in August. That survey by Emerson College found a tight three-way race, with Sanders at 26%, Biden at 25% and
Warren at 20%. More than a dozen other candidates have dropped out since then, and Bloomberg, a selffunding billionaire, entered the race in late November.
The roots of Sanders’ support are clear in the Magellan poll results: He led by 29 percentage points among voters ages 18 to 44, and by 21 points among those who describe themselves as very liberal. He also led among smaller samples of AfricanAmerican and Latino voters.
Even among moderates, his support (18%) was statistically tied with Buttigieg and Bloomberg (both at 17%).
Four years ago, Sanders won Colorado’s caucuses, besting former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The state has switched back to a presidential primary this year.