U.S. aid cut raises fears of collapse in Afghanistan

As President Donald Trump repeatedly expressed fatigue with the long Afghan war, the concern among leaders in Kabul was not that the United States would pull U.S. troops out of Afghanistan but that it would cut crucial funding.

On Tuesday, a day after a frustrated U.S. officials announced $1 billion in immediate aid reductions and threatened to cut $1 billion more next year, President Ashraf Ghani put on a brave face.

During an address to the nation, Ghani said his government had contingency plans and that aid cuts would not affect central functions.

But in private, several of his senior officials, as well as lawmakers and economists, expressed deep concern.

The United States cut the aid because Afghan leaders were unable to resolve a political impasse that is threatening to derail an American plan to end the long conflict.

But Afghans now fear the decision could push the country, almost entirely dependent on foreign aid, past the tipping point. They believe it could lead to the unraveling of an already challenged government and the disintegration of a weary and overstretched security force.

Afghanistan uses foreign aid not just to pay basic expenses but also for its war against the resurgent Taliban. Ghani has said his army would not last more than six months if the United States cut funding. At the end of the Soviet invasion in the 1980s, the Moscow-backed government of Afghanistan collapsed when the money dried up.

“The fighting continues in 10 to 16 provinces every day. More than 50% of our people are below the poverty line and we are mostly reliant on international aid,” said Shahgul Rezai, a member of the Afghan parliament. “Afghanistan may not be able to survive the reduction.”

Now the country faces not just the shock of an abrupt funding cut but also several more crises — a split government, the raging war with the Taliban and the spread of the coronavirus — that have brought it to a brink.

“The reduction will not only affect the civilian aid provided by the United States, but it will also affect the Afghan military, which heavily relies on U.S. aid,” said Abdul Qader Qalatwal, another lawmaker. “If they don’t receive the support they need, there can be factions within the army, whichmayevenleadtothe division of Afghanistan.”