Fall is now jam-packed for book publishers

In March, when parts of the United States began shutting down because of the coronavirus, the best-selling children’s book author Jeff Kinney faced a quandary.

“Rowley Jefferson’s Awesome Friendly Adventure,” part of his popular Wimpy Kid series, was due out in April with a first printing of 3 million copies. His publisher had lined up a 10-city tour.

In a matter of days, those plans crumbled. “The book was about to land in stores that were closed to customers at the height of a pandemic,” Kinney said.

He and his publisher decided to postpone the release until August, in hopes that by then, his tour could be resurrected. Millions of copies are now sitting in warehouses. “It wasn’t an easy decision,” he said. “We knew lots of kids would enjoy the book while in lockdown.”

Delaying a book’s publication is a calculation that authors and publishers throughout the industry have made and wrestled with in recent months, as the pandemic has devastated the retail landscape and led to canceled tours, book fairs, literary festivals and media appearances. As publishers scramble to limit the economic fallout and sales declines driven by the epidemic, hundreds of books that were scheduled to come out this spring and early summer have been postponed, in some cases until next year.

Delayed titles include literary fiction by Elena Ferrante and David Mitchell, a book about manhood and parenting by actor and comedian Michael Ian Black, “God-level Knowledge Darts” from the comedy duo Desus and Mero, and nonfiction by prominent public intellectuals like Ayaan Hirsi Ali and Pankaj Mishra. The result is what looks to be an avalanche of high-profile books this fall, in the middle of a presidential election and an ongoing health and economic crisis, when consumers may be even more distracted.

“We’re a little afraid of the fall season being a gridlock of big books,” said Jonathan Burnham, the publisher of the Harpercollins imprint Harper, which has moved a handful of books, including “Battlegrounds,” from Lt. Gen. H.R. Mcmaster, the former national security adviser.

It may not be a bad problem to have. A flood of eagerly anticipated content is certainly preferable to the canceled shows, concerts and other events that have disrupted the broader cultural world.

Still, for publishers, who carefully calibrate their release dates so that big titles land on shopping-heavy holidays and don’t bump up against one another, the changes feel like a highstakes game of Jenga. The reshuffling has caused logistical logjams, as books by prominent authors move into an increasingly crowded window for media attention, reviews and bookstore display space. Some publishers, particularly smaller houses, worry that printing plants will be overwhelmed, which could make it difficult to keep books in stock.

“Most of us expected that, by fall, things would be, if not exactly back to normal, pretty close to it,” said the literary agent Bill Clegg, whose own novel, “The End of the Day,” was delayed until late September. “Now, 2½ months later, that idea has a distant, once-upon-a-time quality to it.”

Most editors say they are making decisions about release dates on a case-by-case basis, weighing factors like an author’s following, a book’s chances for prominent retail display, and whether major media appearances or book-club picks have already been scheduled.

Hachette has delayed fewer than 20% of its titles and has largely stayed on schedule with its best-known authors, said Michael Pietsch, its chief executive.

“Others that rely on retail display and bookseller recommendations, it makes sense to move — with awareness that there’s going to be a huge pileup of books vying for attention once bookstores reopen,” he said.

Other publishers have been reluctant to reschedule release dates, since there’s no guarantee that things will be better in the fall. Even if more bookstores reopen, customers may still be wary of them, and the economic fallout could worsen.

“Where are you going to move a book to? You’re going to move it to the fall, where you have the election and all these spring books that have moved?” said Morgan Entrekin, publisher and chief executive of Grove Atlantic, which has postponed just a few titles. “All the decisions we make are guesswork. None of us know what we’re doing.”

For authors with a big international audience, changing a release date gets even more complicated.

When Europa Editions decided to push back the publication of Ferrante’s novel “The Lying Life of Adults” from June to September, it scrambled to get two dozen international publishers on board. Europa had already printed 150,000 copies of the English translation by Ann Goldstein, and fans of Ferrante’s “My Brilliant Friend” books likely would have relished the chance to read her latest while sheltering in place. But her publisher decided against publishing the novel when many independent stores are still closed.

“It felt like it would have been a betrayal of the booksellers that have done so much for her,” said Michael Reynolds, Europa’s editor-in-chief.

Despite widespread bookstore closures, book sales haven’t cratered. Print sales this year are flat compared with the same period last year, suggesting that readers are still buying, according to NPD Bookscan.

Well-known writers, like Suzanne Collins, the author of “The Hunger Games,” as well as John Grisham and Stephen King, are weathering the crisis, since their fans snap up their books and can often find them at big-box stores that have remained open.

“The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes,” by Collins, has sold more than 500,000 copies since it went on sale on May 19. Grisham’s “Camino Winds,” which went on sale in late April, has sold more than 207,000 copies, and King’s new book, “If It Bleeds,” sold nearly 200,000 hardcover copies in its first month, according to NPD.

“If there’s a retail outlet that’s open and sells toilet paper, that’s where you want to be,” said Nan Graham, senior vice president and publisher of Scribner, which published “If It Bleeds” in late April.

But for writers without a devoted following — especially debut authors or nonfiction writers who depend on media appearances to drive sales and attention — publishing in a pandemic could pose insurmountable obstacles.

In an ominous sign of how far-off normalcy may be for authors, some anticipated works of fiction have been bumped to next year. Namina Forna’s young adult fantasy debut, “The Gilded Ones,” which was due out in May from Random House Children’s Books, was postponed until March. Michael Sears’ new thriller, “Tower of Babel,” which Soho Press planned to release this summer, has also been delayed until 2021.