Green lights, red flags and a revised prediction
Twenty-nine and 31. That was my original prediction for the 2020 Rockies in this pandemic-shortened, 60-game season. I based that mediocre forecast mostly on lack of faith in Colorado’s pitching. I figured there wasn’t enough talent — or near enough depth — for them to be a contender.
I was wrong. Can I get a mulligan?
As I write this, the Rockies are off to a 9-3 start as they head to Seattle for a weekend series vs. the Mariners. Colorado’s pitching, rather than being the weak link, has been exceptional. The Rockies’ ERA, even after playing seven of their first 12 games at Coors Field in the midsummer heat, is 3.11, the sixth-best in the majors. The staff has held opponents to a .206 batting average and 3.27 runs per game.
I don’t think their sizzling start is sustainable, but it doesn’t have to be in order for the Rockies to be one of eight National League teams to make the playoffs.
My big-picture questions: How good can the Rockies be? Can they beat out the uber-talented Dodgers for an NL West title that will come with an asterisk?
To answer that, let’s look at some green lights and red flags for the 2020 Rockies:
Green light: When, not if, but when, David Dahl (.240 average, no homers .598 OPS) and Nolan Arenado (.222, three homers, .716) heat up, the top-five spots of the order are going to be a formidable gauntlet for opposing pitchers.
Red flag: The bottom of the order has had its moments, but the strikeout rates for Ryan McMahon (18 Ks in 38 at-bats), Sam Hilliard (12 in 24) and Raimel Tapia (7 in 15) are troubling. Yes, I know it’s very early, but it’s also a very short season.
Green light: Right-hander Jairo Diaz, who has inherited the closer role, entered the weekend 3-for-3 in save opportunities while posting a 1.35 ERA, striking out seven and walking only two.
Plus, he has the aggressive mentality you want from a ninth-inning pitcher.
Red flag: Diaz has never done this in the big leagues before and he’s already dealt with a lot of traffic. If Diaz stumbles, can Carlos Estevez do the job? The loss of Scott Oberg looms large over the bullpen.
Green light: So far, righthander Antonio Senzatela, the
No. 4 starter, has been solid (2.45 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .238 average against). He’s in great shape (losing 15 pounds) and is throwing much more effective off-speed pitches to complement his fastball. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats, however, so his low ERA is unsustainable. But he looks like a quality starter who can give the Rockies a solid chance to win when he takes the mound.
Red flag: The Rockies placed right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez on the 10-day injured list Friday with right biceps tendinitis. The loss of Gonzalez, the No. 5 starter, depletes Colorado’s pitching depth. There was a good chance that righty Jeff Hoffman would move into a late-game reliever role — a good fit for him, in my opinion — but now he might have to be a starter.
Green light: There are no statistics or metrics to base this on, but this Rockies team is exceptionally tight-knit and unselfish. It’s a nice combination of veterans and youth.
Red flag: The Dodgers, winners of seven consecutive NL West titles, know how to win. Plus, they own the Rockies, taking 15 of 19 games last season.
Revised bottom line: 36-24, second in the NL West, playoff bound.