Hospital cases up as counties getting more control soon

Colorado’s COVID-19 hospitalizations continued to rise Monday as counties wrapped up preparations to set their own rules meant to keep the virus’ spread in check.

On Friday, the state will transition its color-coded dial framework from a way to dictate each county’s level of openness to a tool local leaders can use as they see fit in setting their own public health restrictions.

The metro area’s largest local health agency, the Tri-County

Health Department, already has rolled out its plan to phase out COVID-19 restrictions in the coming months, including through the introduction of a new lowest level on the dial — Level Clear — that will debut in midMay.

Other Denver-area counties are expected to adopt that same framework.

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment reported 470 people were hospitalized statewide with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 on Monday, which was the highest number since Feb. 18.

The state recorded 9,472 new coronavirus infections, which was 124 fewer than last week, but nearly 3,000 more than at the low point in mid-March.

About 5.7% of tests were positive in Colorado over the last three days, raising the possibility the state could be missing infections. Like the case numbers, the positivity rate was better than a week ago, but substantially worse than a month earlier.

If cases are beginning to level out, it might signal that Colorado was dealing with a “transient event” that briefly caused an increase in hospitalizations, said Beth Carlton, an associate professor of environmental and occupational health at the Colorado School of Public Health.

Still, it’s not a good sign when hospitalizations, cases and the percentage of tests coming back positive are trending up at the same time, she said.

“I think what is most concerning is the steep increase in hospitalizations, really since the beginning of April,” Carlton said.

Hospitalizations generally show how much the virus was spreading about two weeks ago, because most people don’t get seriously sick in the first days after infection. Deaths look back even further, telling you about infections a month or more ago.

The number of deaths per week had dropped since mid-December, but stopped falling in the second half of March, with 28 to 30 people dying of COVID-19 each week for three weeks. Whether deaths remained stable in early April isn’t yet clear, because it can take two weeks for reports to make it into the state’s counts.

The odds of dying from COVID19 increase with age. Since more than 80% of Coloradans older than 70 have been vaccinated, experts think deaths won’t increase at the same rate they did in previous waves.

Coronavirus variants in play

It’s not clear to what extent the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant could offset that by making younger people who aren’t yet immune sicker, though. The variant, first found in the United Kingdom, is associated with higher hospitalization and death rates.

The vaccines available in the United States work as well against B.1.1.7 as they do against the version of the virus that dominated before, Carlton said. They may be slightly less effective against the variants first found in South Africa and Brazil, but they still reduce the odds of serious illness, she said.

“You’re much better off being vaccinated than not,” she said.

People over 16 who haven’t been vaccinated yet should try to get an appointment as soon as possible, and should keep wearing their masks and avoiding indoor crowds, even if their county begins allowing more people to pack together, Carlton said.

“We’re not ready to go back to normal yet,” she said.

Setting local restrictions

The Tri-County Health Department — which serves Adams, Arapahoe and Douglas counties — announced Monday it will extend its mask order and keep following a simplified version of the dial restrictions until May 15. Each county will move one level down in the restrictions, though.

If nothing changes by Friday, Adams and Douglas counties would move to Level Blue, and Arapahoe County would move to Level Green.

Then, beginning May 16, the three counties would move for 90 days to a new Level Clear, where the only restrictions are that businesses must tell sick employees to stay home, have employees wear masks when indoors and follow any state restrictions that remain in effect.

Gov. Jared Polis has said the state only intends to regulate indoor events that attract “thousands” of people.

Under Tri-County’s plan, restrictions could be reimposed if hospitalizations start to rise, though. If a county averages at least two new hospitalizations for every 100,000 residents for seven days in a row, it would move into Level Blue, with the possibility of more restrictions if hospitalizations continued to rise. People from other counties who are transferred to hospitals in the three counties won’t be included in the number used to determine restrictions.

The other health departments in the Denver and Boulder area are planning to adopt the same framework, to make it easier for businesses and residents to follow the rules, said Sarah Mauch, planning and communications administrator for the Broomfield Department of Public Health and Environment.

“We really want there to be some consistency,” she said.

Since March last year, 479,590 people in Colorado have tested positive for COVID-19, 26,285 have been hospitalized and 6,303 have died.