Chalk, toss-ups and upset alerts
The CHSAA state football playoffs have been whittled down to 16 teams in the top three classifications. Here’s a look at this weekend’s slate in all three with quarterfinal spots up for grabs (all games Friday night unless otherwise noted):
CLASS 5A The chalk Any team that knocks off Valor Christian or Cherry Creek before the 5A semifinals should get its own trophy.
No. 16 Fort Collins (9-2) at No. 1 Valor Christian (10-0), 6 p.m.
The Lambkins’ record suggests they might have a chance, but the top-ranked Eagles will be the toughest challenge Fort Collins has faced all season.
No. 18 Mountain Vista (5-6) at No. 2 Cherry Creek (8-2), 7 p.m.
As impressive as the Golden Eagles were in dismantling Legacy 42-17 last week, they’ll have to find another gear vs. Creek’s stout defense (11.2 points allowed/game).
No. 19 Rock Canyon (6-5) at No. 3 Legend (9-1), 7 p.m.
As last week’s 52-49 barn burner vs. Smoky Hill showed, the Jaguars can score in bunches (31.5 points/game). The problem: So can the Titans (38.5).
The toss-ups
As one would expect, the matchups between the 7-10 seeds figure to be white-knucklers.
No 10. Pomona (7-4) at No. 7 Regis Jesuit (7-3), 6 p.m.
Regis has an explosive offense (355.3 yards, 36.0 points/game) and one of the state’s top defensive players in senior DE Nunie Tuitele (18.0 tackles for loss). But 5A Jeffco champion Pomona, which has won five of six, is playing well at the right time.
No. 9 Columbine (8-3) at No. 8 Arvada West (8-2), 6 p.m. Thurs.
The last time these two got together, the Wildcats scored a miraculous last-minute win with an Ethan Cook-to-drew Martinez TD pass. Unfortunately, Cook was injured in the regular-season finale, meaning A-west will likely have to knock off Columbine without one of its best.
Upset watch
A win by the higher seeds in any of these games would be a surprise, but not a total shock.
No. 13 Mullen (4-7) at No. 4 Grandview (8-2), 7 p.m.
Blanch at Mullen’s record all you want. After giving Pomona plenty to think about in a 21-7 Week 9 loss, then winning back-toback games by a 76-7 margin, the Mustangs are a tough out. Even for a Wolves team that’s lost once in six games.
No. 12 Cherokee Trail (7-4) at No. 5 Ralston Valley (8-2), 7 p.m.
Cougars quarterback Logan Brooke (3,057 pass yards, 33 TDS) and receiver Jack Pierce (97 receptions, 1,169 yards) will stress any defense, including one as stout as Ralston Valley’s (10.8 points allowed/game).
No. 11 Thunderridge (9-2) at No. 6 Arapahoe (8-2), 7 p.m.
The Grizzlies received an unexpected bye after Fairview had to forfeit last week’s game due to COVID. Will that make a difference for dual threat QB Seth Frasier (2,428 total yards) and Co. against an Arapahoe team that finished the regular season with a 32-13 loss at Grandview?
CLASS 4A The chalk With so many contenders at the top, it’s quite possible no double-digit seeds will be left after this week.
No. 17 Denver South (9-2) at No. 1 Montrose (10-0), 6 p.m.
The Ravens have the Qb-receiver combo (Joseph Capra/rashad Caldwell) to make things interesting, but can they match Montrose’s physicality?
No. 14 Bear Creek (8-3) at No. 3 Pine Creek (8-2), 7 p.m.
The Bears have some solid wins on the resume (mostly notably, 14-10 over Chatfield), but none would be more impressive than taking down an Eagles team that spent the latter half of the season going toe-to-toe with some of 5A’s best.
No. 13 Pueblo West (7-4) at No. 4 Palmer Ridge (9-1), 1 p.m. Sat.
The Cyclones may be he hottest team in 4A after scoring 102 unanswered points in their last two games combined. But they’ve already seen Palmer Ridge once, and it did not go well (41-14, Bears in Week 4).
The toss-ups The 7-10 seed games promise to produce some tight ones.
No. 10 Ponderosa (7-4) at No. 7 Chatfield (7-3), 7:30 p.m.
Narrow losses to Palmer Ridge (35-28), Vista Ridge (10-7) and Montrose (19-14) show the Mustangs can hang with anyone. The big challenge will be bottling up Chatfield running back Jake Marschall (1,370 rush yards, 18 TDS).
No. 9 Golden (9-2) at No. 8 Fountain-fort Carson (9-1), 7 p.m.
Demons QB Jazel Riley IV has been, well, a demon for Golden this season with 2,928 total yards and 42 TDS passing/rushing. A perfect test for a FFC defense that’s allowed just 11.2 points/ game.
Upset watch
A win by the higher seeds in any of these games would be a surprise, but not a total shock.
No. 15 Longmont (7-4) at No. 2 Dakota Ridge (10-0), 7 p.m.
As crazy as it is to put the Eagles and their point-a-minute attack in this category (it’s pretty bonkers), you have to give any team that has QB Keegan Patterson (3,941 total yards, 45 TDS passing or throwing) a puncher’s chance.
No. 12 Fruita Monument (8-3) at No. 5 Erie (10-0), 7 p.m.
The Tigers have won 10 straight by an average margin of 34.1 points. So why include them here? Just two of those wins came against teams still alive in the 4A bracket. And Fruita Monument just got done dispatching another Erie victim (Brighton) 63-26.
No. 11 Vista Ridge (7-3) at No. 6 Loveland (9-1), 7 p.m.
The defending 4A champions get a solid test out of the gate with Vista Ridge, led by one of the state’s top passers in junior Brayden Dorman (2,506 pass yards, 27 TDS). On the other side of the ledger, Loveland has surrendered double-digit points just three times this fall.
CLASS 3A The chalk Is 3A up for grabs? It’s easy to see any one of Roosevelt, Lutheran, Fort Morgan or Durango winning it all.
No. 16 Thomas Jefferson (7-3) at No. 1 Roosevelt (10-0), 1 p.m. Sat.
The 2021 4A spring champions have been given the unenviable task of trying to score on Roosevelt’s defense (4.6 points/game).
No. 15 Discovery Canyon (5-4) at No. 2 Lutheran (10-0), 7 p.m.
If there is a defense capable of stopping Lutheran — 52.8 points/game— the Lions haven’t seen it yet. Unless you include their practices (7.4 points allowed/game).
No. 14 Green Mountain (6-4) at No. 3 Fort Morgan (8-1), 1 p.m. Sat. The Mustangs have played four teams still alive in the 3A bracket and beaten three of them, with the lone loss a narrow 14-7 defeat vs. top-ranked Roosevelt. Meanwhile, the Rams must recover quickly after losing big to Lutheran (58-8).
No. 13 Evergreen (8-2) at No. 4 Durango (8-2), 1 p.m. Sat.
Since losing back-to-back games to 4A No. 1 Montrose and unbeaten Farmington (N.M.), defending 3A champ Durango has given up one touchdown (yes, one TD) in five contested games. Translation: Evergreen QB Tommy Poholsky (1,879 pass yards, 21 TDS) has his work cut out for him.
The toss-ups Just like in 4A and 5A, the 7-10 seed matchups are good ones.
No. 10 Pueblo East (5-4) at No. 7 Palisade (8-2), 1 p.m. Sat.
The Eagles had a daunting regular-season schedule, with seven of their nine opponents qualifying for either the 4A or 3A playoffs. Palisade, which closed out the regular season with six straight wins, is yet another tough one.
No. 9 Pueblo South (7-3) at No. 8 Holy Family (6-4), 6 p.m.
These two produced an instant classic in late August, with Holy Family outlasting the Colts 34-27 after Pueblo South lost quarterback Jace Bellah to injury. With Bellah back taking snaps, this one could go down to the wire again.
Upset watch
Searching for possible upsets in the 3A round of 16 may be a fool’s errand. Leave it to us to try.
No. 12 Northridge (7-3) at No. 5 Mead (7-2), 7 p.m.
How will the Mavericks respond after getting humbled by Frederick, 45-19, in their regular-season finale? That would be more concerning had Mead not already beaten this same Northridge team 42-0 on Sept. 17. Then again, this might be a different Northridge team.
No. 11 Pueblo County (7-3) at No. 6 Frederick (8-1), 7 p.m.
Sixth-seeded Frederick closed out the regular season by demolishing Mead, but it now faces a Hornets team that’s allowed just 44 points combined (6.3/game) while going 6-1 in its last seven games.